

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 50.32%. A win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 25% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.55%) and 2-0 (8.91%). The likeliest Estoril Praia win was 0-1 (7.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Famalicao | Draw | Estoril Praia | 
| 50.32% (  1.35) | 24.68% (  -0.35) | 25% (  -1) | 
| Both teams to score 52.82% (  0.16) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 50.6% (  0.66) | 49.4% (  -0.66) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 28.55% (  0.59) | 71.44% (  -0.59) | 
| Famalicao Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 80.36% (  0.82) | 19.64% (  -0.82) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 48.39% (  1.32) | 51.61% (  -1.32) | 
| Estoril Praia Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 65.73% (  -0.47) | 34.27% (  0.48) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.03% (  -0.52) | 70.97% (  0.52) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Famalicao | Draw | Estoril Praia | 
| 1-0 @ 10.95% (  -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.55% (  0.11) 2-0 @ 8.91% (  0.21) 3-1 @ 5.18% (  0.19) 3-0 @ 4.84% (  0.23) 3-2 @ 2.77% (  0.06) 4-1 @ 2.11% (  0.13) 4-0 @ 1.97% (  0.14) 4-2 @ 1.13% (  0.05) Other @ 2.91% Total : 50.32% | 1-1 @ 11.73% (  -0.17) 0-0 @ 6.73% (  -0.18) 2-2 @ 5.11% (  -0.01) 3-3 @ 0.99% (  0.01) Other @ 0.12% Total : 24.68% | 0-1 @ 7.21% (  -0.29) 1-2 @ 6.28% (  -0.17) 0-2 @ 3.86% (  -0.21) 1-3 @ 2.24% (  -0.09) 2-3 @ 1.83% (  -0.03) 0-3 @ 1.38% (  -0.09) Other @ 2.2% Total : 25% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 29 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 75 | 24 | 51 | 69 | 
| 2 | Benfica | 28 | 22 | 2 | 4 | 69 | 23 | 46 | 68 | 
| 3 | Porto | 29 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 55 | 25 | 30 | 59 | 
| 4 | Braga | 28 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 45 | 24 | 21 | 57 | 
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 29 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 41 | 29 | 12 | 48 | 
| 6 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 29 | 14 | 4 | 11 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 46 | 
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 29 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 38 | 31 | 7 | 43 | 
| 8 | Casa Pia | 29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 40 | 
| 9 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 38 | 46 | -8 | 39 | 
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 35 | 
| 11 | Nacional | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 32 | 
| 12 | AroucaArouca | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 27 | 43 | -16 | 29 | 
| 13 | Rio AveRio Ave | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 47 | -17 | 29 | 
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 29 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 27 | 43 | -16 | 26 | 
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 41 | -19 | 26 | 
| 16 | AVS | 28 | 4 | 11 | 13 | 21 | 44 | -23 | 23 | 
| 17 | SC FarenseFarense | 28 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 19 | 40 | -21 | 18 | 
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 29 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 47 | -28 | 18 | 
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