

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 54.41%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 20.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.76%) and 2-1 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.78%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 0-1 (7.37%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Famalicao would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Famalicao | Draw | Estoril Praia |
| 54.41% ( | 25.03% ( | 20.56% ( |
| Both teams to score 46.55% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.98% ( | 55.02% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.71% ( | 76.29% ( |
| Famalicao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.8% ( | 20.2% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 47.49% ( | 52.51% ( |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.34% ( | 41.66% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 21.86% ( | 78.14% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Famalicao | Draw | Estoril Praia |
| 1-0 @ 13.46% ( 2-0 @ 10.76% ( 2-1 @ 9.43% ( 3-0 @ 5.74% ( 3-1 @ 5.03% ( 4-0 @ 2.29% ( 3-2 @ 2.2% ( 4-1 @ 2.01% ( Other @ 3.5% Total : 54.41% | 1-1 @ 11.78% ( 0-0 @ 8.42% ( 2-2 @ 4.13% ( Other @ 0.7% Total : 25.02% | 0-1 @ 7.37% ( 1-2 @ 5.16% ( 0-2 @ 3.23% ( 1-3 @ 1.51% ( 2-3 @ 1.21% ( 0-3 @ 0.94% ( Other @ 1.14% Total : 20.56% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 88 | 27 | 61 | 82 |
| 2 | Benfica | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 84 | 28 | 56 | 80 |
| 3 | Porto | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 65 | 30 | 35 | 71 |
| 4 | Braga | 34 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 55 | 30 | 25 | 66 |
| 5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 36 | 32 | 4 | 57 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 47 | 37 | 10 | 54 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 44 | 39 | 5 | 47 |
| 8 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 48 | 53 | -5 | 46 |
| 9 | Casa Pia | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 45 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 42 | 50 | -8 | 40 |
| 11 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 35 | 49 | -14 | 38 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 39 | 55 | -16 | 38 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 34 |
| 14 | Nacional | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 32 | 50 | -18 | 34 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 24 | 50 | -26 | 29 |
| 16 | SC FarenseFarense | 34 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 25 | 46 | -21 | 27 |
| 17 | AVS | 34 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 25 | 60 | -35 | 27 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 24 | 59 | -35 | 24 |
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