We said: Famalicao 2-1 Estoril Praia
This one promises to be an engaging affair given Estoril's knack for finding the net on the road, and although Famalicao have been defensively resolute, they did concede in their last outing at the Municipal to an AVS side not known for their attacking fluency.
Nonetheless, the hosts are backed to edge it, fuelled by their impressive run on home soil, which swings momentum in their favour.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 54.41%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 20.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.76%) and 2-1 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.78%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 0-1 (7.37%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Famalicao would win this match.