

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 39.09%. A win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 35.21% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.53%) and 0-2 (6.48%). The likeliest Estoril Praia win was 1-0 (8.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Estoril Praia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Famalicao |
| 35.21% ( | 25.69% ( | 39.09% ( |
| Both teams to score 55.18% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.09% ( | 48.9% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29% ( | 70.99% ( |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.21% | 26.79% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.92% | 62.07% ( |
| Famalicao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.38% ( | 24.62% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.87% ( | 59.12% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Famalicao |
| 1-0 @ 8.69% ( 2-1 @ 8.02% ( 2-0 @ 5.72% ( 3-1 @ 3.52% ( 3-0 @ 2.51% ( 3-2 @ 2.47% ( 4-1 @ 1.16% ( Other @ 3.13% Total : 35.21% | 1-1 @ 12.17% ( 0-0 @ 6.59% ( 2-2 @ 5.62% ( 3-3 @ 1.15% ( Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.68% | 0-1 @ 9.24% ( 1-2 @ 8.53% ( 0-2 @ 6.48% ( 1-3 @ 3.99% ( 0-3 @ 3.03% ( 2-3 @ 2.63% ( 1-4 @ 1.4% ( 0-4 @ 1.06% ( 2-4 @ 0.92% ( Other @ 1.82% Total : 39.09% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 29 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 75 | 24 | 51 | 69 |
| 2 | Benfica | 28 | 22 | 2 | 4 | 69 | 23 | 46 | 68 |
| 3 | Porto | 29 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 55 | 25 | 30 | 59 |
| 4 | Braga | 28 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 45 | 24 | 21 | 57 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 29 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 41 | 29 | 12 | 48 |
| 6 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 29 | 14 | 4 | 11 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 46 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 29 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 38 | 31 | 7 | 43 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 40 |
| 9 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 38 | 46 | -8 | 39 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 35 |
| 11 | Nacional | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 32 |
| 12 | AroucaArouca | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 27 | 43 | -16 | 29 |
| 13 | Rio AveRio Ave | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 47 | -17 | 29 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 29 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 27 | 43 | -16 | 26 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 41 | -19 | 26 |
| 16 | AVS | 28 | 4 | 11 | 13 | 21 | 44 | -23 | 23 |
| 17 | SC FarenseFarense | 28 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 19 | 40 | -21 | 18 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 29 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 47 | -28 | 18 |
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