

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 39.09%. A win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 35.21% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.53%) and 0-2 (6.48%). The likeliest Estoril Praia win was 1-0 (8.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Estoril Praia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Famalicao | 
| 35.21% (  0.15) | 25.69% (  0.04) | 39.09% (  -0.19) | 
| Both teams to score 55.18% (  -0.13) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 51.09% (  -0.18) | 48.9% (  0.18) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 29% (  -0.16) | 70.99% (  0.17) | 
| Estoril Praia Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 73.21% | 26.79% | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.92% | 62.07% (  -0) | 
| Famalicao Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 75.38% (  -0.18) | 24.62% (  0.18) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.87% (  -0.25) | 59.12% (  0.25) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Famalicao | 
| 1-0 @ 8.69% (  0.06) 2-1 @ 8.02% (  0.02) 2-0 @ 5.72% (  0.04) 3-1 @ 3.52% (  0.01) 3-0 @ 2.51% (  0.02) 3-2 @ 2.47% (  -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.16% (  0) Other @ 3.13% Total : 35.21% | 1-1 @ 12.17% (  0.02) 0-0 @ 6.59% (  0.05) 2-2 @ 5.62% (  -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.15% (  -0.01) Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.68% | 0-1 @ 9.24% (  0.02) 1-2 @ 8.53% (  -0.03) 0-2 @ 6.48% (  -0.02) 1-3 @ 3.99% (  -0.03) 0-3 @ 3.03% (  -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.63% (  -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.4% (  -0.02) 0-4 @ 1.06% (  -0.01) 2-4 @ 0.92% (  -0.01) Other @ 1.82% Total : 39.09% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 29 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 75 | 24 | 51 | 69 | 
| 2 | Benfica | 28 | 22 | 2 | 4 | 69 | 23 | 46 | 68 | 
| 3 | Porto | 29 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 55 | 25 | 30 | 59 | 
| 4 | Braga | 28 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 45 | 24 | 21 | 57 | 
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 29 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 41 | 29 | 12 | 48 | 
| 6 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 29 | 14 | 4 | 11 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 46 | 
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 29 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 38 | 31 | 7 | 43 | 
| 8 | Casa Pia | 29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 40 | 
| 9 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 38 | 46 | -8 | 39 | 
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 35 | 
| 11 | Nacional | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 32 | 
| 12 | AroucaArouca | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 27 | 43 | -16 | 29 | 
| 13 | Rio AveRio Ave | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 47 | -17 | 29 | 
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 29 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 27 | 43 | -16 | 26 | 
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 41 | -19 | 26 | 
| 16 | AVS | 28 | 4 | 11 | 13 | 21 | 44 | -23 | 23 | 
| 17 | SC FarenseFarense | 28 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 19 | 40 | -21 | 18 | 
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 29 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 47 | -28 | 18 | 
| > Primeira Liga Full Table | |||||||||
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
