| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 11 | Pacos de Ferreira | 34 | -15 | 38 |
| 12 | Famalicao | 33 | -7 | 36 |
| 13 | Estoril Praia | 33 | -9 | 36 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 12 | Famalicao | 33 | -7 | 36 |
| 13 | Estoril Praia | 33 | -9 | 36 |
| 14 | Vizela | 33 | -18 | 33 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 50.6%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 23.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.92%) and 2-1 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.26%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 0-1 (8.16%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Famalicao would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Famalicao | Draw | Estoril Praia |
| 50.6% | 26.06% | 23.34% |
| Both teams to score 47.07% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.89% | 56.11% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.82% | 77.18% |
| Famalicao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.76% | 22.24% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.33% | 55.67% |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.53% | 39.47% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 23.84% | 76.16% |
| Score Analysis |
| Famalicao | Draw | Estoril Praia |
| 1-0 @ 13.19% 2-0 @ 9.92% 2-1 @ 9.22% 3-0 @ 4.97% 3-1 @ 4.62% 3-2 @ 2.15% 4-0 @ 1.87% 4-1 @ 1.74% Other @ 2.93% Total : 50.6% | 1-1 @ 12.26% 0-0 @ 8.78% 2-2 @ 4.29% Other @ 0.73% Total : 26.05% | 0-1 @ 8.16% 1-2 @ 5.7% 0-2 @ 3.79% 1-3 @ 1.77% 2-3 @ 1.33% 0-3 @ 1.18% Other @ 1.41% Total : 23.34% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 18 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 45 | 12 | 33 | 47 |
| 2 | Braga | 17 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 39 | 13 | 26 | 40 |
| 3 | Porto | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 41 | 11 | 30 | 39 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 33 | 19 | 14 | 32 |
| 5 | Casa Pia | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 30 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 26 |
| 7 | Vizela | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 24 |
| 8 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 24 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 27 | -7 | 24 |
| 10 | ChavesChaves | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 22 |
| 11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 21 |
| 12 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 21 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 20 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 19 |
| 15 | Gil Vicente | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 18 |
| 16 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 14 |
| 17 | Maritimo | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 31 | -20 | 13 |
| 18 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 18 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 34 | -24 | 6 |
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