

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estoril Praia win with a probability of 40.72%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 34.26% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estoril Praia win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.74%) and 0-2 (6.51%). The likeliest Chaves win was 2-1 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Chaves | Draw | Estoril Praia |
| 34.26% ( | 25.02% ( | 40.72% ( |
| Both teams to score 57.31% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.92% ( | 46.08% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.62% ( | 68.38% ( |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.99% ( | 26.01% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.96% ( | 61.04% ( |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.46% ( | 22.54% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.88% ( | 56.12% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Chaves | Draw | Estoril Praia |
| 2-1 @ 7.92% ( 1-0 @ 7.9% ( 2-0 @ 5.32% ( 3-1 @ 3.56% ( 3-2 @ 2.65% ( 3-0 @ 2.39% ( 4-1 @ 1.2% ( Other @ 3.34% Total : 34.26% | 1-1 @ 11.76% ( 2-2 @ 5.9% ( 0-0 @ 5.86% ( 3-3 @ 1.32% ( Other @ 0.18% Total : 25.02% | 1-2 @ 8.76% ( 0-1 @ 8.74% ( 0-2 @ 6.51% ( 1-3 @ 4.35% ( 0-3 @ 3.23% ( 2-3 @ 2.93% ( 1-4 @ 1.62% ( 0-4 @ 1.2% ( 2-4 @ 1.09% ( Other @ 2.28% Total : 40.72% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
| 2 | Benfica | 32 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 71 | 27 | 44 | 76 |
| 3 | Porto | 32 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 60 | 26 | 34 | 66 |
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 68 | 47 | 21 | 65 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 47 | 34 | 13 | 60 |
| 6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 49 |
| 7 | AroucaArouca | 32 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
| 9 | SC FarenseFarense | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 37 |
| 10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
| 11 | Casa Pia | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 35 |
| 12 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 33 |
| 13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
| 14 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 58 | -22 | 31 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
| 16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
| R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
| R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
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