

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estoril Praia win with a probability of 40.72%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 34.26% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estoril Praia win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.74%) and 0-2 (6.51%). The likeliest Chaves win was 2-1 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Chaves | Draw | Estoril Praia | 
| 34.26% (  -1.14) | 25.02% (  -0.26) | 40.72% (  1.4) | 
| Both teams to score 57.31% (  0.69) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 53.92% (  0.99) | 46.08% (  -0.99) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 31.62% (  0.93) | 68.38% (  -0.93) | 
| Chaves Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 73.99% (  -0.2) | 26.01% (  0.2) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.96% (  -0.26) | 61.04% (  0.26) | 
| Estoril Praia Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 77.46% (  1.14) | 22.54% (  -1.14) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.88% (  1.67) | 56.12% (  -1.67) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Chaves | Draw | Estoril Praia | 
| 2-1 @ 7.92% (  -0.15) 1-0 @ 7.9% (  -0.38) 2-0 @ 5.32% (  -0.29) 3-1 @ 3.56% (  -0.09) 3-2 @ 2.65% (  0.02) 3-0 @ 2.39% (  -0.14) 4-1 @ 1.2% (  -0.04) Other @ 3.34% Total : 34.26% | 1-1 @ 11.76% (  -0.16) 2-2 @ 5.9% (  0.08) 0-0 @ 5.86% (  -0.25) 3-3 @ 1.32% (  0.05) Other @ 0.18% Total : 25.02% | 1-2 @ 8.76% (  0.17) 0-1 @ 8.74% (  -0.07) 0-2 @ 6.51% (  0.16) 1-3 @ 4.35% (  0.23) 0-3 @ 3.23% (  0.19) 2-3 @ 2.93% (  0.14) 1-4 @ 1.62% (  0.14) 0-4 @ 1.2% (  0.11) 2-4 @ 1.09% (  0.09) Other @ 2.28% Total : 40.72% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 | 
| 2 | Benfica | 32 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 71 | 27 | 44 | 76 | 
| 3 | Porto | 32 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 60 | 26 | 34 | 66 | 
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 68 | 47 | 21 | 65 | 
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 47 | 34 | 13 | 60 | 
| 6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 49 | 
| 7 | AroucaArouca | 32 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 46 | 
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 | 
| 9 | SC FarenseFarense | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 37 | 
| 10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 | 
| 11 | Casa Pia | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 35 | 
| 12 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 33 | 
| 13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 | 
| 14 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 58 | -22 | 31 | 
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 | 
| 16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 | 
| R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 | 
| R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 | 
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