

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chaves win with a probability of 37.05%. A win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 35.56% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chaves win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.01%) and 0-2 (6.65%). The likeliest Estoril Praia win was 1-0 (10.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chaves would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Chaves |
| 35.56% ( | 27.39% ( | 37.05% ( |
| Both teams to score 49.65% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.05% ( | 55.95% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.96% ( | 77.05% ( |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.01% ( | 30% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.89% ( | 66.12% ( |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.92% ( | 29.08% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.01% ( | 64.99% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Chaves |
| 1-0 @ 10.5% ( 2-1 @ 7.81% ( 2-0 @ 6.32% ( 3-1 @ 3.14% ( 3-0 @ 2.54% ( 3-2 @ 1.94% ( 4-1 @ 0.94% ( Other @ 2.37% Total : 35.55% | 1-1 @ 12.97% ( 0-0 @ 8.72% ( 2-2 @ 4.82% ( Other @ 0.88% Total : 27.39% | 0-1 @ 10.77% ( 1-2 @ 8.01% ( 0-2 @ 6.65% ( 1-3 @ 3.3% ( 0-3 @ 2.74% ( 2-3 @ 1.99% ( 1-4 @ 1.02% ( Other @ 2.57% Total : 37.05% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 31 | 26 | 2 | 3 | 72 | 17 | 55 | 80 |
| 2 | Porto | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 64 | 19 | 45 | 76 |
| 3 | Braga | 31 | 23 | 2 | 6 | 66 | 26 | 40 | 71 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 21 | 4 | 6 | 65 | 28 | 37 | 67 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 48 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 14 | 5 | 12 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 47 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 32 | 35 | -3 | 43 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 13 | 3 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 42 |
| 9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 40 |
| 10 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 40 |
| 11 | Vizela | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 39 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 39 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 10 | 4 | 17 | 24 | 40 | -16 | 34 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 28 | 39 | -11 | 31 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 8 | 4 | 19 | 26 | 46 | -20 | 28 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 31 | 6 | 5 | 20 | 29 | 58 | -29 | 23 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 31 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 23 | 56 | -33 | 20 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 31 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 22 | 50 | -28 | 19 |
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