

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chaves win with a probability of 42%. A win for Portimonense had a probability of 33.16% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chaves win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.75%) and 2-0 (6.69%). The likeliest Portimonense win was 1-2 (7.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Chaves | Draw | Portimonense |
| 42% ( | 24.83% ( | 33.16% ( |
| Both teams to score 57.65% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.5% ( | 45.51% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.17% ( | 67.84% ( |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.33% ( | 21.67% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.19% ( | 54.81% ( |
| Portimonense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.6% ( | 26.4% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.44% ( | 61.56% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Chaves | Draw | Portimonense |
| 2-1 @ 8.91% ( 1-0 @ 8.75% ( 2-0 @ 6.69% ( 3-1 @ 4.54% ( 3-0 @ 3.41% ( 3-2 @ 3.02% ( 4-1 @ 1.74% ( 4-0 @ 1.3% ( 4-2 @ 1.16% ( Other @ 2.49% Total : 42.01% | 1-1 @ 11.65% ( 2-2 @ 5.93% ( 0-0 @ 5.72% ( 3-3 @ 1.34% ( Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.83% | 1-2 @ 7.76% ( 0-1 @ 7.62% ( 0-2 @ 5.08% ( 1-3 @ 3.45% ( 2-3 @ 2.63% ( 0-3 @ 2.25% ( 1-4 @ 1.15% ( Other @ 3.23% Total : 33.16% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
| 2 | Benfica | 32 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 71 | 27 | 44 | 76 |
| 3 | Porto | 32 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 60 | 26 | 34 | 66 |
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 68 | 47 | 21 | 65 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 47 | 34 | 13 | 60 |
| 6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 49 |
| 7 | AroucaArouca | 32 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
| 9 | SC FarenseFarense | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 37 |
| 10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
| 11 | Casa Pia | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 35 |
| 12 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 33 |
| 13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
| 14 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 58 | -22 | 31 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
| 16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
| R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
| R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
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