

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chaves win with a probability of 40.01%. A win for Portimonense had a probability of 32.79% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chaves win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.4%) and 0-2 (7.29%). The likeliest Portimonense win was 1-0 (9.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.88%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Portimonense in this match.
| Result | ||
| Portimonense | Draw | Chaves |
| 32.79% ( | 27.2% ( | 40.01% ( |
| Both teams to score 49.81% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.45% ( | 55.55% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.28% ( | 76.72% ( |
| Portimonense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.4% ( | 31.6% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32% ( | 68% ( |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.81% ( | 27.18% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.41% ( | 62.59% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Portimonense | Draw | Chaves |
| 1-0 @ 9.9% ( 2-1 @ 7.43% ( 2-0 @ 5.7% ( 3-1 @ 2.85% 3-0 @ 2.19% ( 3-2 @ 1.86% ( Other @ 2.87% Total : 32.79% | 1-1 @ 12.88% ( 0-0 @ 8.59% ( 2-2 @ 4.84% ( Other @ 0.89% Total : 27.19% | 0-1 @ 11.18% ( 1-2 @ 8.4% ( 0-2 @ 7.29% ( 1-3 @ 3.65% ( 0-3 @ 3.16% ( 2-3 @ 2.1% ( 1-4 @ 1.19% ( 0-4 @ 1.03% ( Other @ 2.01% Total : 40% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 16 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 37 | 17 | 20 | 40 |
| 2 | Benfica | 16 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 10 | 21 | 39 |
| 3 | Porto | 16 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 35 |
| 4 | Braga | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 40 | 23 | 17 | 33 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 18 | 8 | 30 |
| 6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 26 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 22 |
| 8 | SC FarenseFarense | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 21 |
| 9 | Casa Pia | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 19 |
| 10 | PortimonensePortimonense | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 36 | -18 | 18 |
| 11 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 30 | 29 | 1 | 17 |
| 12 | Estrela Amadora | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 17 |
| 13 | BoavistaBoavista | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 30 | -8 | 17 |
| 14 | AroucaArouca | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 16 |
| 15 | Gil Vicente | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 26 | 30 | -4 | 15 |
| 16 | Rio AveRio Ave | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 15 |
| 17 | Vizela | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 13 |
| 18 | ChavesChaves | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 18 | 41 | -23 | 11 |
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