The current FIFA rankings suggest this will be a mismatch, but Tajikistan have a well-balanced side who are in great form, while overall boasting some decent quality in the attacking third, as seen in their 6-1 shellacking of Pakistan last November.
China, meanwhile, are entering this competition in poor form, with Lei having to shoulder the scoring load, and we believe they could get frustrated by this young, upstart Tajiki squad.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tajikistan win with a probability of 53.71%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for China had a probability of 21.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tajikistan win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.23%) and 1-2 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.72%), while for a China win it was 1-0 (7.2%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
-0.07) 
0.09) 
