Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barry Town United win with a probability of 43.88%. A win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 33.13% and a draw had a probability of 23%.

The most likely scoreline for a Barry Town United win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.74%) and 0-2 (5.92%). The likeliest Aberystwyth Town win was 2-1 (7.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Barry Town United would win this match.