

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 50.88%. A win for Portimonense had a probability of 24.82% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.62%) and 2-0 (8.82%). The likeliest Portimonense win was 0-1 (6.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.52%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Famalicao | Draw | Portimonense |
| 50.88% | 24.29% ( | 24.82% ( |
| Both teams to score 53.88% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.08% ( | 47.91% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.9% ( | 70.09% ( |
| Famalicao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.16% ( | 18.84% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 49.71% ( | 50.29% ( |
| Portimonense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.39% ( | 33.61% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.74% ( | 70.25% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Famalicao | Draw | Portimonense |
| 1-0 @ 10.56% ( 2-1 @ 9.62% ( 2-0 @ 8.82% ( 3-1 @ 5.35% ( 3-0 @ 4.91% ( 3-2 @ 2.92% ( 4-1 @ 2.23% ( 4-0 @ 2.05% ( 4-2 @ 1.22% ( Other @ 3.2% Total : 50.88% | 1-1 @ 11.52% ( 0-0 @ 6.33% ( 2-2 @ 5.24% ( 3-3 @ 1.06% ( Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.29% | 0-1 @ 6.9% ( 1-2 @ 6.28% ( 0-2 @ 3.76% ( 1-3 @ 2.28% ( 2-3 @ 1.91% ( 0-3 @ 1.37% ( Other @ 2.31% Total : 24.82% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
| 2 | Benfica | 32 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 71 | 27 | 44 | 76 |
| 3 | Porto | 32 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 60 | 26 | 34 | 66 |
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 68 | 47 | 21 | 65 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 47 | 34 | 13 | 60 |
| 6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 49 |
| 7 | AroucaArouca | 32 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
| 9 | SC FarenseFarense | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 37 |
| 10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
| 11 | Casa Pia | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 35 |
| 12 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 33 |
| 13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
| 14 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 58 | -22 | 31 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
| 16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
| R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
| R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
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