

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 38.85%. A win for Minnesota United had a probability of 36.17% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.38%) and 2-0 (6.11%). The likeliest Minnesota United win was 1-2 (8.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Toronto | Draw | Minnesota United |
| 38.85% ( | 24.98% ( | 36.17% ( |
| Both teams to score 57.77% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.38% ( | 45.62% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.05% ( | 67.94% ( |
| Toronto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.72% ( | 23.27% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 42.79% ( | 57.2% ( |
| Minnesota United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.29% ( | 24.7% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.75% ( | 59.24% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Toronto | Draw | Minnesota United |
| 2-1 @ 8.54% ( 1-0 @ 8.38% ( 2-0 @ 6.11% ( 3-1 @ 4.15% ( 3-0 @ 2.97% ( 3-2 @ 2.9% ( 4-1 @ 1.51% ( 4-0 @ 1.08% ( 4-2 @ 1.06% ( Other @ 2.14% Total : 38.85% | 1-1 @ 11.71% ( 2-2 @ 5.97% ( 0-0 @ 5.75% ( 3-3 @ 1.35% ( Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.97% | 1-2 @ 8.19% ( 0-1 @ 8.04% ( 0-2 @ 5.62% ( 1-3 @ 3.82% ( 2-3 @ 2.78% ( 0-3 @ 2.62% ( 1-4 @ 1.34% ( 2-4 @ 0.97% ( 0-4 @ 0.92% ( Other @ 1.87% Total : 36.17% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 27 |
| 2 | Columbus Crew | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 26 |
| 3 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 26 |
| 4 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 19 | 7 | 24 |
| 5 | New York City FCNY City | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 24 |
| 6 | Nashville SCNashville | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 17 | 7 | 22 |
| 7 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Chicago Fire | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 22 |
| 9 | Orlando City | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 25 | 18 | 7 | 21 |
| 10 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 21 |
| 11 | New England RevolutionNew England | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 21 |
| 12 | DC United | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 16 |
| 13 | Toronto | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 13 |
| 14 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 13 |
| 15 | CF MontrealMontreal | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 25 | -18 | 6 |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 10 | 14 | 28 |
| 2 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 28 |
| 3 | Portland TimbersPortland | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 20 | 3 | 22 |
| 4 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 23 | 18 | 5 | 20 |
| 5 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 20 | 1 | 19 |
| 6 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 19 |
| 7 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 22 | 5 | 17 |
| 8 | Dallas | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 17 |
| 9 | Austin FCAustin | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 17 |
| 10 | St Louis City | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 13 |
| 11 | Houston DynamoHouston | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 13 |
| 12 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 13 |
| 13 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 29 | -17 | 7 |
| 15 | San Diego FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
