

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Cincinnati win with a probability of 62.11%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Toronto had a probability of 17.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Cincinnati win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.17%) and 2-1 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.8%), while for a Toronto win it was 0-1 (4.82%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for FC Cincinnati in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for FC Cincinnati.
| Result | ||
| FC Cincinnati | Draw | Toronto |
| 62.11% ( | 20.77% ( | 17.12% ( |
| Both teams to score 53.71% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.55% ( | 42.45% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.14% ( | 64.86% ( |
| FC Cincinnati Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.88% ( | 13.12% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 60.24% ( | 39.76% ( |
| Toronto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.82% ( | 38.18% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 25.06% ( | 74.94% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Cincinnati | Draw | Toronto |
| 2-0 @ 10.33% ( 1-0 @ 10.17% ( 2-1 @ 9.95% ( 3-0 @ 7% ( 3-1 @ 6.74% ( 4-0 @ 3.55% ( 4-1 @ 3.42% ( 3-2 @ 3.24% ( 4-2 @ 1.65% ( 5-0 @ 1.44% ( 5-1 @ 1.39% ( Other @ 3.23% Total : 62.11% | 1-1 @ 9.8% ( 0-0 @ 5.01% ( 2-2 @ 4.79% ( 3-3 @ 1.04% ( Other @ 0.14% Total : 20.77% | 0-1 @ 4.82% ( 1-2 @ 4.72% ( 0-2 @ 2.32% ( 2-3 @ 1.54% ( 1-3 @ 1.51% ( Other @ 2.21% Total : 17.12% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 27 |
| 2 | Columbus Crew | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 26 |
| 3 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 26 |
| 4 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 19 | 7 | 24 |
| 5 | New York City FCNY City | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 24 |
| 6 | Nashville SCNashville | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 17 | 7 | 22 |
| 7 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Chicago Fire | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 22 |
| 9 | Orlando City | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 25 | 18 | 7 | 21 |
| 10 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 21 |
| 11 | New England RevolutionNew England | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 21 |
| 12 | DC United | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 16 |
| 13 | Toronto | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 13 |
| 14 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 13 |
| 15 | CF MontrealMontreal | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 25 | -18 | 6 |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 10 | 14 | 28 |
| 2 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 28 |
| 3 | Portland TimbersPortland | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 20 | 3 | 22 |
| 4 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 23 | 18 | 5 | 20 |
| 5 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 20 | 1 | 19 |
| 6 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 19 |
| 7 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 22 | 5 | 17 |
| 8 | Dallas | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 17 |
| 9 | Austin FCAustin | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 17 |
| 10 | St Louis City | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 13 |
| 11 | Houston DynamoHouston | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 13 |
| 12 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 13 |
| 13 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 29 | -17 | 7 |
| 15 | San Diego FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
