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Philadelphia Union
Major League Soccer
Mar 2, 2025 at 12.30am UK
Subaru Park
FC Cincinnati

Philadelphia
4 - 1
Cincinnati

Baribo (6', 30', 52'), Damiani (90+3')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Evander (58')
Nwobodo (75')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Major League Soccer clash between Philadelphia Union and FC Cincinnati, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Orlando City 2-4 Philadelphia
Sunday, February 23 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Cincinnati 1-1 Motagua
Wednesday, February 26 at 11.30pm in CONCACAF Champions League

We said: Philadelphia Union 1-2 FC Cincinnati

Philadelphia Union will look to build on their impressive opening win, but FC Cincinnati's strong form and superior head-to-head record give them the edge. We expect a tight contest, with both sides posing a threat in attack – however, Cincy's resilience and momentum could see them snatch a narrow win here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Cincinnati win with a probability of 38.23%. A win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 37.64% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a FC Cincinnati win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.31%) and 0-2 (5.58%). The likeliest Philadelphia Union win was 2-1 (8.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.06%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood.

Result
Philadelphia UnionDrawFC Cincinnati
37.64% (-0.131 -0.13) 24.13% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02) 38.23% (0.153 0.15)
Both teams to score 61% (0.068000000000005 0.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.52% (0.088000000000001 0.09)41.48% (-0.085000000000001 -0.09)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.12% (0.089999999999996 0.09)63.88% (-0.085000000000001 -0.09)
Philadelphia Union Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.96% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)22.04% (0.029999999999998 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.62% (-0.042000000000002 -0.04)55.38% (0.045000000000002 0.05)
FC Cincinnati Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.25% (0.117 0.12)21.75% (-0.112 -0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.07% (0.174 0.17)54.93% (-0.169 -0.17)
Score Analysis
    Philadelphia Union 37.64%
    FC Cincinnati 38.23%
    Draw 24.13%
Philadelphia UnionDrawFC Cincinnati
2-1 @ 8.36% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
1-0 @ 7.25% (-0.035 -0.04)
2-0 @ 5.48% (-0.031 -0.03)
3-1 @ 4.22% (-0.013 -0.01)
3-2 @ 3.22% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-0 @ 2.76% (-0.018 -0.02)
4-1 @ 1.59% (-0.006 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.22% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-0 @ 1.05% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 2.5%
Total : 37.64%
1-1 @ 11.06% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-2 @ 6.38% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)
0-0 @ 4.8% (-0.018 -0.02)
3-3 @ 1.64% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 0.26%
Total : 24.13%
1-2 @ 8.44% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
0-1 @ 7.31% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-2 @ 5.58% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
1-3 @ 4.29% (0.024 0.02)
2-3 @ 3.24% (0.015 0.02)
0-3 @ 2.84% (0.018 0.02)
1-4 @ 1.64% (0.015 0.01)
2-4 @ 1.24% (0.01 0.01)
0-4 @ 1.08% (0.011 0.01)
Other @ 2.57%
Total : 38.23%

Head to Head
Oct 19, 2024 11pm
Philadelphia
1-2
Cincinnati
Sullivan (2')
Baribo (59'), Elliott (66'), Wagner (80')
Rodrigo Asad (45+4'), Glesnes (46' og.)
Nwobodo (64'), Rodrigo Asad (68'), Orellano (80')
Aug 14, 2024 12.30am
Round of 16
Cincinnati
2-4
Philadelphia
Bucha (66'), Yedlin (80')
Robinson (43')
Uhre (52'), Baribo (61', 81'), Sullivan (84')
Wagner (90+2')
Jun 20, 2024 12.45am
Cincinnati
4-3
Philadelphia
Kelsy (29'), Acosta (49' pen., 90+10'), Orellano (60')
Keller (6')
Baribo (43', 90+1'), Bueno (55')
Wagner (12'), Elliott (12'), McGlynn (81')
Nov 26, 2023 1am
Sep 17, 2023 12.30am
Philadelphia
2-2
Cincinnati
Andres Martinez (23'), Gazdag (37' pen.)
Elliott (19'), Gazdag (21'), Lowe (42'), Carranza (63'), Wagner (74'), Baribo (85')
Elliott (90+4')
Boupendza (49'), Vazquez (76')
Miazga (18'), Celentano (35'), Mosquera (36'), Hagglund (45+4')
Mosquera (83')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS

Eastern Conference

TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia1483324121227
2Columbus Crew147522218426
3FC CincinnatiCincinnati158252121026
4Inter MiamiInter Miami137332619724
5New York City FCNY City157352017324
6Nashville SCNashville146442417722
7Charlotte FCCharlotte FC147162218422
8Chicago Fire156452828022
9Orlando City145632518721
10New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls146352115621
11New England RevolutionNew England136341510521
12DC United144461526-1116
13Toronto143471619-313
14Atlanta UnitedAtlanta153481727-1013
15CF MontrealMontreal141310725-186

Western Conference

TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver1384124101428
2Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd1484225131228
3Portland TimbersPortland136432320322
4Seattle SoundersSeattle145542318520
5Los Angeles FCLos Angeles135442120119
6Colorado RapidsColorado135441618-219
7San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes145272722517
8Dallas144551522-717
9Austin FCAustin14527817-917
10St Louis City143471118-713
11Houston DynamoHouston143471422-813
12Real Salt LakeSalt Lake144191321-813
13Sporting Kansas CityKansas133281923-411
14Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy131481229-177
15San Diego FC00000000


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