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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Cincinnati win with a probability of 50.83%. A win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 26.2% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Cincinnati win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.48%) and 2-0 (7.72%). The likeliest Philadelphia Union win was 1-2 (6.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Cincinnati would win this match.
Result | ||
FC Cincinnati | Draw | Philadelphia Union |
50.83% ( -0.41) | 22.97% ( 0.13) | 26.2% ( 0.28) |
Both teams to score 59.69% ( -0.17) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59.13% ( -0.36) | 40.86% ( 0.35) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.74% ( -0.36) | 63.25% ( 0.36) |
FC Cincinnati Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.78% ( -0.28) | 16.22% ( 0.28) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.28% ( -0.51) | 45.71% ( 0.5) |
Philadelphia Union Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.24% ( 0.03) | 28.75% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.4% ( 0.03) | 64.59% ( -0.04) |
Score Analysis |
FC Cincinnati | Draw | Philadelphia Union |
2-1 @ 9.62% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 8.48% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 7.72% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 5.83% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 4.68% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 3.63% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 2.65% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 2.13% ( -0.05) 4-2 @ 1.65% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 0.97% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.48% Total : 50.83% | 1-1 @ 10.57% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 5.99% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.66% ( 0.07) 3-3 @ 1.51% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.23% Total : 22.97% | 1-2 @ 6.59% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 5.81% ( 0.1) 0-2 @ 3.62% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 2.74% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 2.49% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.51% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.44% Total : 26.2% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 37 | 22 | 10 | 5 | 62 | 40 | 22 | 76 |
2 | Orlando City | 37 | 20 | 9 | 8 | 57 | 41 | 16 | 69 |
3 | Columbus Crew | 38 | 19 | 9 | 10 | 77 | 52 | 25 | 66 |
4 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 37 | 17 | 10 | 10 | 61 | 43 | 18 | 61 |
5 | New England RevolutionNew England | 36 | 15 | 10 | 11 | 59 | 50 | 9 | 55 |
6 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 37 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 72 | 61 | 11 | 54 |
7 | Nashville SCNashville | 36 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 39 | 34 | 5 | 49 |
8 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 37 | 12 | 11 | 14 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 47 |
9 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 35 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 47 | 57 | -10 | 43 |
10 | New York City FCNY City | 34 | 9 | 14 | 11 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 41 |
11 | CF MontrealMontreal | 34 | 12 | 5 | 17 | 36 | 52 | -16 | 41 |
12 | DC United | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 49 | -4 | 40 |
13 | Chicago Fire | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 40 |
14 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 41 | 54 | -13 | 34 |
15 | Toronto | 34 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 22 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 37 | 16 | 11 | 10 | 45 | 35 | 10 | 59 |
2 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 36 | 16 | 10 | 10 | 60 | 41 | 19 | 58 |
3 | Houston DynamoHouston | 37 | 15 | 11 | 11 | 55 | 41 | 14 | 56 |
4 | St Louis City | 36 | 17 | 5 | 14 | 64 | 51 | 13 | 56 |
5 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 37 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 51 | 54 | -3 | 52 |
6 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 37 | 14 | 9 | 14 | 54 | 53 | 1 | 51 |
7 | Dallas | 37 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 44 | 41 | 3 | 49 |
8 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 36 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 57 | 54 | 3 | 48 |
9 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 35 | 10 | 15 | 10 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 45 |
10 | Portland TimbersPortland | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 46 | 58 | -12 | 43 |
11 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 41 |
12 | Austin FCAustin | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 49 | 55 | -6 | 39 |
13 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 51 | 67 | -16 | 36 |
14 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 34 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 26 | 54 | -28 | 27 |