Augsburg logo
Augsburg logo
Leverkusen logo
Leverkusen logo
Bayern logo
Bayern logo
Dortmund logo
Dortmund logo
Borussia Monchengladbach logo
Borussia Monchengladbach logo
Eintracht Frankfurt logo
Eintracht Frankfurt logo
Freiburg logo
Freiburg logo
Heidenheim
Heidenheim
Hoffenheim logo
Hoffenheim logo
Mainz logo
Mainz logo
Leipzig logo
Leipzig logo
Stuttgart
Stuttgart
Union Berlin logo
Union Berlin logo
VfL Bochum
VfL Bochum
Werder Bremen logo
Werder Bremen logo
Wolfsburg
Wolfsburg
Bundesliga desktop header

Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 29
Apr 12, 2025 at 2.30pm UK
Holstein-Stadion

Holstein Kiel
1 - 2
St Pauli

Bernhardsson (21', 21')
Ivezic (60'), Harres (77'), Schulz (86')
FT(HT: 2-2)
Sinani (34', 34'), Geschwill (90+2' og., 90+2' og.)
Nemeth (37'), Afolayan (46'), Wahl (82'), Guilavogui (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Holstein Kiel and St Pauli, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Holstein Kiel

All competitions
Last Game: Mainz 1-1 Holstein Kiel
Saturday, April 5 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

St Pauli

All competitions
Last Game: St Pauli 1-1 Borussia M'bach
Sunday, April 6 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 47.05%. A win for Holstein Kiel had a probability of 29.92% and a draw had a probability of 23%.

The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.46%) and 0-2 (6.68%). The likeliest Holstein Kiel win was 2-1 (7.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for St Pauli in this match.

Result
Holstein KielDrawSt Pauli
29.92% (0.276 0.28)23.03% (0.038 0.04)47.05% (-0.311 -0.31)
Both teams to score 62.51% (0.043999999999997 0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.54% (-0.018999999999998 -0.02)38.46% (0.022999999999996 0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39.25% (-0.019000000000005 -0.02)60.75% (0.022999999999996 0.02)
Holstein Kiel Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.03% (0.164 0.16)24.96% (-0.162 -0.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.39% (0.226 0.23)59.61% (-0.221 -0.22)
St Pauli Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.3% (-0.121 -0.12)16.7% (0.125 0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.41% (-0.22300000000001 -0.22)46.58% (0.226 0.23)
Score Analysis
    Holstein Kiel 29.92%
    St Pauli 47.05%
    Draw 23.03%
Holstein KielDrawSt Pauli
2-1 @ 7.18% (0.044 0.04)
1-0 @ 5.78% (0.032999999999999 0.03)
2-0 @ 4.01% (0.042 0.04)
3-1 @ 3.32% (0.036 0.04)
3-2 @ 2.97% (0.02 0.02)
3-0 @ 1.86% (0.028 0.03)
4-1 @ 1.15% (0.018 0.02)
4-2 @ 1.03% (0.012 0.01)
Other @ 2.59%
Total : 29.92%
1-1 @ 10.35% (0.02 0.02)
2-2 @ 6.43% (0.013 0.01)
0-0 @ 4.17% (0.0040000000000004 0)
3-3 @ 1.78% (0.0049999999999999 0)
Other @ 0.31%
Total : 23.03%
1-2 @ 9.27% (-0.025 -0.03)
0-1 @ 7.46% (-0.023 -0.02)
0-2 @ 6.68% (-0.049 -0.05)
1-3 @ 5.53% (-0.038 -0.04)
0-3 @ 3.98% (-0.046 -0.05)
2-3 @ 3.84% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
1-4 @ 2.47% (-0.027 -0.03)
0-4 @ 1.78% (-0.028 -0.03)
2-4 @ 1.72% (-0.011 -0.01)
Other @ 4.32%
Total : 47.05%

How you voted: Holstein Kiel vs St Pauli

Holstein Kiel
28.1%
Draw
37.5%
St Pauli
34.4%
32
Head to Head
Nov 29, 2024 7.30pm
Gameweek 12
St Pauli
3-1
Holstein Kiel
Saliakas (25'), Guilavogui (56'), Eggestein (85')
Smith (38'), Afolayan (86')
Harres (90+1')
Rapp (0'), Holtby (23'), Machino (23'), Ivezic (27'), Becker (38'), Erras (90+2')
> Preview
Feb 23, 2024 5.30pm
Gameweek 23
Holstein Kiel
3-4
St Pauli
Machino (53'), Mees (65'), Bernhardsson (82')
Schulz (45')
Afolayan (11', 36'), Hartel (34'), Metcalfe (57')
Saliakas (90+4'), Hurzeler (90+5')
Sep 17, 2023 12.30pm
Gameweek 6
St Pauli
5-1
Holstein Kiel
Metcalfe (4'), Smith (7'), Afolayan (38'), Ritzka (69'), Hartel (90+3')
Hurzeler (0'), Smith (27'), Burchert (45+2'), Saad (49')
Holtby (50')
Porath (16'), Holtby (47'), Rothe (73')
May 19, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 33
Holstein Kiel
3-4
St Pauli
Skrzybski (28' pen.), Komenda (78'), Reese (90+3')
Becker (45+2'), Rapp (46'), Bartels (65'), Pichler (90+5'), Wahl (90+9')
Afolayan (39'), Wahl (53' og.), Daschner (61'), Paqarada (74')
Hurzeler (0'), Afolayan (77')
Afolayan (87')
Nov 8, 2022 5.30pm
Gameweek 16
St Pauli
0-0
Holstein Kiel
rhs 2.0
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CBayern MunichBayern34257299326782
2Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen341912372432969
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt34179868462260
4Borussia DortmundDortmund341761171512057
5Freiburg34167114953-455
6Mainz 05Mainz3414101055431252
7RB Leipzig34131295348551
8Werder Bremen34149115457-351
9Stuttgart341481264531150
10Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach34136155557-245
11Wolfsburg341110135654243
12Augsburg341110133551-1643
13Union BerlinUnion Berlin341010143551-1640
14St Pauli3488182841-1332
15Hoffenheim34711164668-2232
16Heidenheim3485213764-2729
RHolstein Kiel3467214980-3125
RVfL BochumVfL Bochum3467213367-3425
> Bundesliga Full Table


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
Argentina's Lionel Messi kisses the World Cup trophy after collecting the Golden Ball award on December 18, 2022Sign up for our FREE daily preview newsletter direct to your inbox!