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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Holstein Kiel win with a probability of 41.11%. A win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 36.27% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Holstein Kiel win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.88%) and 2-0 (5.17%). The likeliest Werder Bremen win was 1-2 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.64%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Holstein Kiel | Draw | Werder Bremen |
| 41.11% ( | 22.62% ( | 36.27% ( |
| Both teams to score 66.7% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.97% ( | 34.03% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.11% ( | 55.89% ( |
| Holstein Kiel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.74% ( | 17.26% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 52.42% ( | 47.58% ( |
| Werder Bremen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.61% ( | 19.39% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 48.8% ( | 51.2% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Holstein Kiel | Draw | Werder Bremen |
| 2-1 @ 8.47% ( 1-0 @ 5.88% ( 2-0 @ 5.17% ( 3-1 @ 4.96% ( 3-2 @ 4.07% ( 3-0 @ 3.03% ( 4-1 @ 2.18% ( 4-2 @ 1.79% ( 4-0 @ 1.33% ( 4-3 @ 0.98% ( Other @ 3.27% Total : 41.11% | 1-1 @ 9.64% ( 2-2 @ 6.95% ( 0-0 @ 3.35% ( 3-3 @ 2.23% ( Other @ 0.45% Total : 22.62% | 1-2 @ 7.91% ( 0-1 @ 5.49% ( 0-2 @ 4.5% ( 1-3 @ 4.33% ( 2-3 @ 3.8% ( 0-3 @ 2.46% ( 1-4 @ 1.77% ( 2-4 @ 1.56% ( 0-4 @ 1.01% ( 3-4 @ 0.91% ( Other @ 2.53% Total : 36.27% |

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 99 | 32 | 67 | 82 |
| 2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 19 | 12 | 3 | 72 | 43 | 29 | 69 |
| 3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 68 | 46 | 22 | 60 |
| 4 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 71 | 51 | 20 | 57 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 49 | 53 | -4 | 55 |
| 6 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 55 | 43 | 12 | 52 |
| 7 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 53 | 48 | 5 | 51 |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 54 | 57 | -3 | 51 |
| 9 | Stuttgart | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 64 | 53 | 11 | 50 |
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 55 | 57 | -2 | 45 |
| 11 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 56 | 54 | 2 | 43 |
| 12 | Augsburg | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 43 |
| 13 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 40 |
| 14 | St Pauli | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 28 | 41 | -13 | 32 |
| 15 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 46 | 68 | -22 | 32 |
| 16 | Heidenheim | 34 | 8 | 5 | 21 | 37 | 64 | -27 | 29 |
| R | Holstein Kiel | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 49 | 80 | -31 | 25 |
| R | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 33 | 67 | -34 | 25 |
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