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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Holstein Kiel win with a probability of 48.55%. A win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 29.53% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Holstein Kiel win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.25%) and 0-2 (6.11%). The likeliest Werder Bremen win was 2-1 (6.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Werder Bremen in this match.
| Result | ||
| Werder Bremen | Draw | Holstein Kiel |
| 29.53% ( | 21.91% ( | 48.55% ( |
| Both teams to score 66.44% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.8% ( | 33.19% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.05% ( | 54.94% ( |
| Werder Bremen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.42% ( | 22.57% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.83% ( | 56.16% ( |
| Holstein Kiel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.8% ( | 14.19% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 58.09% ( | 41.9% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Werder Bremen | Draw | Holstein Kiel |
| 2-1 @ 6.93% ( 1-0 @ 4.77% ( 2-0 @ 3.55% ( 3-1 @ 3.44% ( 3-2 @ 3.36% ( 3-0 @ 1.76% ( 4-1 @ 1.28% ( 4-2 @ 1.25% ( Other @ 3.2% Total : 29.53% | 1-1 @ 9.31% ( 2-2 @ 6.76% ( 0-0 @ 3.2% ( 3-3 @ 2.18% ( Other @ 0.45% Total : 21.91% | 1-2 @ 9.09% ( 0-1 @ 6.25% ( 0-2 @ 6.11% ( 1-3 @ 5.92% ( 2-3 @ 4.4% ( 0-3 @ 3.97% ( 1-4 @ 2.89% ( 2-4 @ 2.15% ( 0-4 @ 1.94% ( 1-5 @ 1.13% ( 3-4 @ 1.07% ( Other @ 3.65% Total : 48.56% |

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 99 | 32 | 67 | 82 |
| 2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 19 | 12 | 3 | 72 | 43 | 29 | 69 |
| 3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 68 | 46 | 22 | 60 |
| 4 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 71 | 51 | 20 | 57 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 49 | 53 | -4 | 55 |
| 6 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 55 | 43 | 12 | 52 |
| 7 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 53 | 48 | 5 | 51 |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 54 | 57 | -3 | 51 |
| 9 | Stuttgart | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 64 | 53 | 11 | 50 |
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 55 | 57 | -2 | 45 |
| 11 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 56 | 54 | 2 | 43 |
| 12 | Augsburg | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 43 |
| 13 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 40 |
| 14 | St Pauli | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 28 | 41 | -13 | 32 |
| 15 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 46 | 68 | -22 | 32 |
| 16 | Heidenheim | 34 | 8 | 5 | 21 | 37 | 64 | -27 | 29 |
| R | Holstein Kiel | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 49 | 80 | -31 | 25 |
| R | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 33 | 67 | -34 | 25 |
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