We said: St Pauli 1-2 Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim have been excellent away from home, and they will believe they can cause their hosts numerous issues during counter-attacks.
St Pauli's home form has been subpar, and they have struggled in the final third in the past weeks, so the visitors should come into Friday's match as favourites.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 43.68%. A win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 31.26% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.07%) and 2-0 (7.21%). The likeliest Hoffenheim win was 0-1 (7.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for St Pauli in this match.