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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 43.68%. A win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 31.26% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.07%) and 2-0 (7.21%). The likeliest Hoffenheim win was 0-1 (7.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for St Pauli in this match.
| Result | ||
| St Pauli | Draw | Hoffenheim |
| 43.68% ( | 25.06% ( | 31.26% ( |
| Both teams to score 56.12% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.83% ( | 47.17% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.59% ( | 69.4% ( |
| St Pauli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.39% | 21.6% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.29% ( | 54.7% ( |
| Hoffenheim Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.58% ( | 28.42% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.83% ( | 64.17% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| St Pauli | Draw | Hoffenheim |
| 1-0 @ 9.41% ( 2-1 @ 9.07% ( 2-0 @ 7.21% ( 3-1 @ 4.63% 3-0 @ 3.68% ( 3-2 @ 2.91% ( 4-1 @ 1.77% 4-0 @ 1.41% ( 4-2 @ 1.12% Other @ 2.47% Total : 43.68% | 1-1 @ 11.83% 0-0 @ 6.14% ( 2-2 @ 5.71% ( 3-3 @ 1.22% ( Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.06% | 0-1 @ 7.72% 1-2 @ 7.45% ( 0-2 @ 4.86% ( 1-3 @ 3.12% ( 2-3 @ 2.39% ( 0-3 @ 2.04% ( 1-4 @ 0.98% ( Other @ 2.7% Total : 31.26% |

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 99 | 32 | 67 | 82 |
| 2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 19 | 12 | 3 | 72 | 43 | 29 | 69 |
| 3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 68 | 46 | 22 | 60 |
| 4 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 71 | 51 | 20 | 57 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 49 | 53 | -4 | 55 |
| 6 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 55 | 43 | 12 | 52 |
| 7 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 53 | 48 | 5 | 51 |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 54 | 57 | -3 | 51 |
| 9 | Stuttgart | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 64 | 53 | 11 | 50 |
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 55 | 57 | -2 | 45 |
| 11 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 56 | 54 | 2 | 43 |
| 12 | Augsburg | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 43 |
| 13 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 40 |
| 14 | St Pauli | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 28 | 41 | -13 | 32 |
| 15 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 46 | 68 | -22 | 32 |
| 16 | Heidenheim | 34 | 8 | 5 | 21 | 37 | 64 | -27 | 29 |
| R | Holstein Kiel | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 49 | 80 | -31 | 25 |
| R | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 33 | 67 | -34 | 25 |
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