We said: Hoffenheim 1-2 Mainz 05
Though Mainz are in poor form, they have not often experienced defeat in recent weeks, and their away record is strong.
Hoffenheim have also struggled for positive results, and considering their subpar record against the visitors, they may suffer yet another loss on Saturday.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hoffenheim win with a probability of 44.31%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 31.72% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hoffenheim win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.11%) and 2-0 (6.69%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-2 (7.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hoffenheim would win this match.