Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 76.28%. A draw had a probability of 15.2% and a win for SC Farense had a probability of 8.52%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.53%) and 1-0 (10.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.23%), while for a SC Farense win it was 0-1 (2.91%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.