

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 63.84%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for SC Farense had a probability of 16.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.06%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.48%), while for a SC Farense win it was 0-1 (4.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | SC Farense | 
| 63.84% (  0.01) | 20.13% (  0.01) | 16.03% (  -0.02) | 
| Both teams to score 53.5% (  -0.08) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 58.45% (  -0.08) | 41.54% (  0.08) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 36.05% (  -0.08) | 63.94% (  0.08) | 
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 87.65% (  -0.02) | 12.34% (  0.02) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 61.83% (  -0.04) | 38.16% (  0.04) | 
| SC Farense Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 61.04% (  -0.07) | 38.96% (  0.07) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.31% (  -0.07) | 75.68% (  0.07) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | SC Farense | 
| 2-0 @ 10.52% (  0.02) 1-0 @ 10.06% (  0.03) 2-1 @ 9.92% 3-0 @ 7.34% (  0.01) 3-1 @ 6.92% (  -0) 4-0 @ 3.84% (  0) 4-1 @ 3.62% (  -0.01) 3-2 @ 3.26% (  -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.71% (  -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.61% (  -0) 5-1 @ 1.51% (  -0) Other @ 3.53% Total : 63.83% | 1-1 @ 9.48% (  0.01) 0-0 @ 4.81% (  0.02) 2-2 @ 4.68% (  -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.03% (  -0) Other @ 0.14% Total : 20.13% | 0-1 @ 4.53% (  0.01) 1-2 @ 4.47% (  -0) 0-2 @ 2.14% (  -0) 2-3 @ 1.47% (  -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.4% (  -0.01) Other @ 2.02% Total : 16.03% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 | 
| 2 | Benfica | 32 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 71 | 27 | 44 | 76 | 
| 3 | Porto | 32 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 60 | 26 | 34 | 66 | 
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 68 | 47 | 21 | 65 | 
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 47 | 34 | 13 | 60 | 
| 6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 49 | 
| 7 | AroucaArouca | 32 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 46 | 
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 | 
| 9 | SC FarenseFarense | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 37 | 
| 10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 | 
| 11 | Casa Pia | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 35 | 
| 12 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 33 | 
| 13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 | 
| 14 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 58 | -22 | 31 | 
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 | 
| 16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 | 
| R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 | 
| R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 | 
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