

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 59.93%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 18.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.96%) and 0-2 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.07%), while for a Gil Vicente win it was 1-0 (5.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 18.66% ( | 21.4% ( | 59.93% ( |
| Both teams to score 54.66% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.31% ( | 42.69% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.9% ( | 65.09% ( |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.44% ( | 36.56% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.65% ( | 73.34% ( |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.15% ( | 13.84% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 58.78% ( | 41.22% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 1-0 @ 5.09% ( 2-1 @ 5.07% ( 2-0 @ 2.56% ( 3-1 @ 1.7% ( 3-2 @ 1.68% ( Other @ 2.56% Total : 18.66% | 1-1 @ 10.07% ( 0-0 @ 5.06% ( 2-2 @ 5.01% ( 3-3 @ 1.11% ( Other @ 0.15% Total : 21.4% | 0-1 @ 10% ( 1-2 @ 9.96% 0-2 @ 9.89% ( 1-3 @ 6.56% ( 0-3 @ 6.52% ( 2-3 @ 3.3% ( 1-4 @ 3.24% ( 0-4 @ 3.22% ( 2-4 @ 1.63% ( 1-5 @ 1.28% ( 0-5 @ 1.28% ( Other @ 3.03% Total : 59.93% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
| 2 | Benfica | 32 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 71 | 27 | 44 | 76 |
| 3 | Porto | 32 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 60 | 26 | 34 | 66 |
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 68 | 47 | 21 | 65 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 47 | 34 | 13 | 60 |
| 6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 49 |
| 7 | AroucaArouca | 32 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
| 9 | SC FarenseFarense | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 37 |
| 10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
| 11 | Casa Pia | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 35 |
| 12 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 33 |
| 13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
| 14 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 58 | -22 | 31 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
| 16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
| R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
| R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
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