

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 39.58%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 31.71% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.96%) and 0-2 (7.65%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 1-0 (11.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Casa Pia | Draw | Famalicao |
| 31.71% ( | 28.71% ( | 39.58% ( |
| Both teams to score 45.17% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.78% ( | 61.22% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.85% ( | 81.15% ( |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.68% ( | 35.32% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 27.92% ( | 72.08% ( |
| Famalicao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.84% ( | 30.16% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.69% ( | 66.31% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Casa Pia | Draw | Famalicao |
| 1-0 @ 11.08% ( 2-1 @ 6.92% ( 2-0 @ 5.77% ( 3-1 @ 2.4% ( 3-0 @ 2% ( 3-2 @ 1.44% ( Other @ 2.1% Total : 31.7% | 1-1 @ 13.28% ( 0-0 @ 10.65% ( 2-2 @ 4.15% ( Other @ 0.62% Total : 28.7% | 0-1 @ 12.76% ( 1-2 @ 7.96% ( 0-2 @ 7.65% ( 1-3 @ 3.18% ( 0-3 @ 3.06% ( 2-3 @ 1.66% ( 1-4 @ 0.95% ( 0-4 @ 0.92% ( Other @ 1.44% Total : 39.58% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 24 | 7 | 2 | 86 | 27 | 59 | 79 |
| 2 | Benfica | 33 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 83 | 27 | 56 | 79 |
| 3 | Porto | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 62 | 30 | 32 | 68 |
| 4 | Braga | 33 | 19 | 8 | 6 | 54 | 29 | 25 | 65 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 47 | 35 | 12 | 54 |
| 6 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 33 | 16 | 6 | 11 | 34 | 31 | 3 | 54 |
| 7 | Casa Pia | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 45 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 42 | 38 | 4 | 44 |
| 9 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 44 | 53 | -9 | 43 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 37 |
| 11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 38 | 54 | -16 | 37 |
| 12 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 31 | 48 | -17 | 35 |
| 13 | Nacional | 33 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 47 | -15 | 34 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 8 | 9 | 16 | 33 | 46 | -13 | 33 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 24 | 46 | -22 | 29 |
| 16 | SC FarenseFarense | 33 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 24 | 44 | -20 | 27 |
| 17 | AVS | 33 | 5 | 12 | 16 | 25 | 57 | -32 | 27 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 6 | 6 | 21 | 23 | 55 | -32 | 24 |
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