

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 56.09%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 21.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.84%) and 2-0 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.55%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 1-2 (5.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Casa Pia in this match.
| Result | ||
| Famalicao | Draw | Casa Pia |
| 56.09% ( | 22.46% ( | 21.45% ( |
| Both teams to score 55.69% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.47% ( | 43.53% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.07% ( | 65.93% ( |
| Famalicao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.65% ( | 15.36% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 55.87% ( | 44.13% ( |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.79% ( | 34.21% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.09% ( | 70.91% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Famalicao | Draw | Casa Pia |
| 2-1 @ 9.89% ( 1-0 @ 9.84% ( 2-0 @ 9.22% ( 3-1 @ 6.18% ( 3-0 @ 5.76% ( 3-2 @ 3.31% ( 4-1 @ 2.89% ( 4-0 @ 2.7% 4-2 @ 1.55% ( 5-1 @ 1.08% ( 5-0 @ 1.01% ( Other @ 2.64% Total : 56.09% | 1-1 @ 10.55% ( 2-2 @ 5.31% ( 0-0 @ 5.25% ( 3-3 @ 1.19% ( Other @ 0.16% Total : 22.46% | 1-2 @ 5.66% ( 0-1 @ 5.64% ( 0-2 @ 3.02% ( 1-3 @ 2.02% ( 2-3 @ 1.9% ( 0-3 @ 1.08% ( Other @ 2.13% Total : 21.45% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 24 | 7 | 2 | 86 | 27 | 59 | 79 |
| 2 | Benfica | 33 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 83 | 27 | 56 | 79 |
| 3 | Porto | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 62 | 30 | 32 | 68 |
| 4 | Braga | 33 | 19 | 8 | 6 | 54 | 29 | 25 | 65 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 47 | 35 | 12 | 54 |
| 6 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 33 | 16 | 6 | 11 | 34 | 31 | 3 | 54 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 44 | 39 | 5 | 47 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 45 |
| 9 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 44 | 53 | -9 | 43 |
| 10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 39 | 55 | -16 | 38 |
| 11 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 37 |
| 12 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 31 | 48 | -17 | 35 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 34 |
| 14 | Nacional | 33 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 47 | -15 | 34 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 24 | 46 | -22 | 29 |
| 16 | SC FarenseFarense | 33 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 24 | 44 | -20 | 27 |
| 17 | AVS | 33 | 5 | 12 | 16 | 25 | 57 | -32 | 27 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 6 | 6 | 21 | 23 | 55 | -32 | 24 |
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