

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 72.78%. A draw had a probability of 16.3% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 10.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.38%) and 3-0 (9.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.59%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 1-2 (3.24%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Braga | Draw | Casa Pia |
| 72.78% ( | 16.26% ( | 10.95% ( |
| Both teams to score 52.6% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.59% ( | 35.41% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.55% ( | 57.45% ( |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.56% ( | 8.44% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 70.69% ( | 29.31% ( |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.46% ( | 42.54% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 21.1% ( | 78.9% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Braga | Draw | Casa Pia |
| 2-0 @ 10.97% ( 2-1 @ 9.38% ( 3-0 @ 9.04% ( 1-0 @ 8.88% ( 3-1 @ 7.73% ( 4-0 @ 5.59% ( 4-1 @ 4.78% ( 3-2 @ 3.3% ( 5-0 @ 2.76% ( 5-1 @ 2.36% ( 4-2 @ 2.04% ( 6-0 @ 1.14% ( 5-2 @ 1.01% ( 6-1 @ 0.97% ( Other @ 2.83% Total : 72.78% | 1-1 @ 7.59% ( 2-2 @ 4.01% ( 0-0 @ 3.59% ( 3-3 @ 0.94% ( Other @ 0.14% Total : 16.26% | 1-2 @ 3.24% ( 0-1 @ 3.07% ( 0-2 @ 1.31% ( 2-3 @ 1.14% ( 1-3 @ 0.92% ( Other @ 1.27% Total : 10.96% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 32 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 85 | 26 | 59 | 78 |
| 2 | Benfica | 32 | 25 | 3 | 4 | 82 | 26 | 56 | 78 |
| 3 | Porto | 32 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 60 | 29 | 31 | 65 |
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 19 | 8 | 5 | 53 | 27 | 26 | 65 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 14 | 12 | 6 | 46 | 33 | 13 | 54 |
| 6 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 32 | 30 | 2 | 51 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 32 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 41 | 36 | 5 | 44 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 36 | 41 | -5 | 42 |
| 9 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 42 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 37 | 48 | -11 | 36 |
| 11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 36 |
| 12 | AroucaArouca | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 30 | 47 | -17 | 34 |
| 13 | Nacional | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 29 | 44 | -15 | 33 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 32 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 32 | 7 | 8 | 17 | 24 | 45 | -21 | 29 |
| 16 | SC FarenseFarense | 32 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 22 | 43 | -21 | 24 |
| 17 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 22 | 53 | -31 | 24 |
| 18 | AVS | 32 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 24 | 57 | -33 | 24 |
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