

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vizela win with a probability of 46.51%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 28.03% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vizela win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.25%) and 2-0 (8.2%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Vizela | Draw | Casa Pia | 
| 46.51% (  -0.26) | 25.45% (  0.12) | 28.03% (  0.14) | 
| Both teams to score 52.96% (  -0.27) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 49.56% (  -0.4) | 50.44% (  0.4) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 27.63% (  -0.35) | 72.37% (  0.35) | 
| Vizela Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 78.31% (  -0.28) | 21.68% (  0.28) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.17% (  -0.43) | 54.83% (  0.43) | 
| Casa Pia Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 67.62% (  -0.1) | 32.38% (  0.1) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.11% (  -0.11) | 68.89% (  0.12) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Vizela | Draw | Casa Pia | 
| 1-0 @ 10.73% (  0.08) 2-1 @ 9.25% (  -0.03) 2-0 @ 8.2% (  -0.01) 3-1 @ 4.71% (  -0.06) 3-0 @ 4.18% (  -0.04) 3-2 @ 2.66% (  -0.04) 4-1 @ 1.8% (  -0.04) 4-0 @ 1.6% (  -0.03) 4-2 @ 1.02% (  -0.02) Other @ 2.37% Total : 46.51% | 1-1 @ 12.1% (  0.06) 0-0 @ 7.02% (  0.11) 2-2 @ 5.22% (  -0.03) 3-3 @ 1% (  -0.02) Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.45% | 0-1 @ 7.92% (  0.11) 1-2 @ 6.82% (  0.01) 0-2 @ 4.46% (  0.05) 1-3 @ 2.57% (  -0) 2-3 @ 1.96% (  -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.68% (  0.01) Other @ 2.62% Total : 28.03% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 | 
| 2 | Benfica | 32 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 71 | 27 | 44 | 76 | 
| 3 | Porto | 32 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 60 | 26 | 34 | 66 | 
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 68 | 47 | 21 | 65 | 
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 47 | 34 | 13 | 60 | 
| 6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 49 | 
| 7 | AroucaArouca | 32 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 46 | 
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 | 
| 9 | SC FarenseFarense | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 37 | 
| 10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 | 
| 11 | Casa Pia | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 35 | 
| 12 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 33 | 
| 13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 | 
| 14 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 58 | -22 | 31 | 
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 | 
| 16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 | 
| R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 | 
| R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 | 
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