

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 76.74%. A draw had a probability of 15.2% and a win for Vizela had a probability of 8.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.07%) and 3-0 (10.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.24%), while for a Vizela win it was 0-1 (2.97%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Vizela |
| 76.74% ( | 15.24% ( | 8.02% ( |
| Both teams to score 43.81% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.7% ( | 40.3% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.33% ( | 62.67% ( |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.26% ( | 8.74% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 69.97% ( | 30.03% ( |
| Vizela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 48% ( | 52% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 13.99% ( | 86% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Vizela |
| 2-0 @ 13.49% ( 1-0 @ 11.07% ( 3-0 @ 10.96% ( 2-1 @ 8.83% ( 3-1 @ 7.17% ( 4-0 @ 6.68% ( 4-1 @ 4.37% ( 5-0 @ 3.26% ( 3-2 @ 2.35% ( 5-1 @ 2.13% ( 4-2 @ 1.43% ( 6-0 @ 1.32% ( Other @ 3.66% Total : 76.72% | 1-1 @ 7.24% ( 0-0 @ 4.54% ( 2-2 @ 2.89% ( Other @ 0.57% Total : 15.24% | 0-1 @ 2.97% ( 1-2 @ 2.37% ( 0-2 @ 0.97% ( Other @ 1.71% Total : 8.02% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 22 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 52 | 15 | 37 | 55 |
| 2 | Sporting Lisbon | 20 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 58 | 19 | 39 | 52 |
| 3 | Porto | 22 | 15 | 3 | 4 | 37 | 16 | 21 | 48 |
| 4 | Braga | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 46 | 33 | 13 | 43 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 35 | 23 | 12 | 41 |
| 6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 26 | 24 | 2 | 35 |
| 7 | AroucaArouca | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 35 | 30 | 5 | 28 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 21 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 26 |
| 9 | SC FarenseFarense | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 30 | 31 | -1 | 26 |
| 10 | Gil Vicente | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 25 |
| 11 | BoavistaBoavista | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 30 | 40 | -10 | 24 |
| 12 | Casa Pia | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 23 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 24 | 45 | -21 | 22 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 21 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 22 | 34 | -12 | 21 |
| 16 | Rio AveRio Ave | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 21 |
| 17 | ChavesChaves | 22 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 22 | 48 | -26 | 17 |
| 18 | Vizela | 22 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 20 | 44 | -24 | 16 |
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