

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vizela win with a probability of 45.59%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 27.75% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vizela win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.95%) and 0-2 (8.57%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 1-0 (8.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Estrela Amadora | Draw | Vizela | 
| 27.75% (  -0.39) | 26.65% (  -0.24) | 45.59% (  0.63) | 
| Both teams to score 49.13% (  0.43) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 44.67% (  0.68) | 55.32% (  -0.68) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 23.46% (  0.55) | 76.54% (  -0.55) | 
| Estrela Amadora Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 64.81% (  0.05) | 35.18% (  -0.05) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.06% (  0.05) | 71.93% (  -0.05) | 
| Vizela Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 75.79% (  0.61) | 24.2% (  -0.61) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.46% (  0.85) | 58.54% (  -0.85) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Estrela Amadora | Draw | Vizela | 
| 1-0 @ 8.9% (  -0.22) 2-1 @ 6.59% (  -0.04) 2-0 @ 4.65% (  -0.11) 3-1 @ 2.3% (  -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.63% (  0.02) 3-0 @ 1.62% (  -0.04) Other @ 2.08% Total : 27.75% | 1-1 @ 12.61% (  -0.1) 0-0 @ 8.51% (  -0.23) 2-2 @ 4.68% (  0.05) Other @ 0.85% Total : 26.65% | 0-1 @ 12.08% (  -0.1) 1-2 @ 8.95% (  0.09) 0-2 @ 8.57% (  0.08) 1-3 @ 4.23% (  0.12) 0-3 @ 4.05% (  0.11) 2-3 @ 2.21% (  0.06) 1-4 @ 1.5% (  0.07) 0-4 @ 1.44% (  0.06) Other @ 2.55% Total : 45.59% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 | 
| 2 | Benfica | 32 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 71 | 27 | 44 | 76 | 
| 3 | Porto | 32 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 60 | 26 | 34 | 66 | 
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 68 | 47 | 21 | 65 | 
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 47 | 34 | 13 | 60 | 
| 6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 49 | 
| 7 | AroucaArouca | 32 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 46 | 
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 | 
| 9 | SC FarenseFarense | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 37 | 
| 10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 | 
| 11 | Casa Pia | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 35 | 
| 12 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 33 | 
| 13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 | 
| 14 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 58 | -22 | 31 | 
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 | 
| 16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 | 
| R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 | 
| R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 | 
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