

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 66.85%. A draw had a probability of 19% and a win for Vizela had a probability of 14.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.85%) and 1-2 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.92%), while for a Vizela win it was 1-0 (4.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-5 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Vizela | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 14.19% ( | 18.96% ( | 66.85% ( |
| Both teams to score 52.97% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.02% ( | 39.98% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.66% ( | 62.35% ( |
| Vizela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.56% ( | 40.44% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 22.95% ( | 77.05% ( |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.93% ( | 11.07% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 64.57% ( | 35.44% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Vizela | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 1-0 @ 4.05% 2-1 @ 4.04% ( 2-0 @ 1.84% ( 3-2 @ 1.34% ( 3-1 @ 1.22% ( Other @ 1.7% Total : 14.19% | 1-1 @ 8.92% ( 0-0 @ 4.48% ( 2-2 @ 4.44% ( 3-3 @ 0.98% ( Other @ 0.13% Total : 18.96% | 0-2 @ 10.84% ( 0-1 @ 9.85% ( 1-2 @ 9.82% ( 0-3 @ 7.96% ( 1-3 @ 7.2% ( 0-4 @ 4.38% ( 1-4 @ 3.96% ( 2-3 @ 3.26% ( 0-5 @ 1.93% ( 2-4 @ 1.79% ( 1-5 @ 1.74% ( Other @ 4.12% Total : 66.85% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 20 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 44 | 12 | 32 | 51 |
| 2 | Sporting Lisbon | 19 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 53 | 19 | 34 | 49 |
| 3 | Porto | 20 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 33 | 13 | 20 | 45 |
| 4 | Braga | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 44 | 27 | 17 | 40 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 20 | 12 | 39 |
| 6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 25 | 24 | 1 | 32 |
| 7 | AroucaArouca | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 32 | 27 | 5 | 25 |
| 8 | SC FarenseFarense | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 25 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 22 |
| 10 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 22 |
| 11 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 20 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 21 |
| 12 | BoavistaBoavista | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 37 | -10 | 21 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 20 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 23 | 41 | -18 | 21 |
| 14 | Casa Pia | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 20 |
| 15 | Rio AveRio Ave | 20 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 18 |
| 16 | Estrela Amadora | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 32 | -13 | 18 |
| 17 | ChavesChaves | 20 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 20 | 46 | -26 | 14 |
| 18 | Vizela | 20 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 38 | -20 | 13 |
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