

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 40.97%. A win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 35.76% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.64%) and 0-2 (5.56%). The likeliest RKC Waalwijk win was 2-1 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.3%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| RKC Waalwijk | Draw | Heerenveen |
| 35.76% ( | 23.26% ( | 40.97% ( |
| Both teams to score 64.08% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.6% ( | 37.39% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.38% ( | 59.61% ( |
| RKC Waalwijk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.84% ( | 21.16% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.98% ( | 54.02% ( |
| Heerenveen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.28% ( | 18.72% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 49.91% ( | 50.08% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| RKC Waalwijk | Draw | Heerenveen |
| 2-1 @ 8% ( 1-0 @ 6.15% ( 2-0 @ 4.78% ( 3-1 @ 4.14% ( 3-2 @ 3.47% ( 3-0 @ 2.47% ( 4-1 @ 1.61% ( 4-2 @ 1.35% ( 4-0 @ 0.96% ( Other @ 2.82% Total : 35.76% | 1-1 @ 10.3% ( 2-2 @ 6.71% ( 0-0 @ 3.96% ( 3-3 @ 1.94% ( Other @ 0.35% Total : 23.26% | 1-2 @ 8.64% ( 0-1 @ 6.64% ( 0-2 @ 5.56% ( 1-3 @ 4.82% ( 2-3 @ 3.75% ( 0-3 @ 3.11% ( 1-4 @ 2.02% ( 2-4 @ 1.57% ( 0-4 @ 1.3% ( Other @ 3.57% Total : 40.97% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 34 | 25 | 4 | 5 | 103 | 39 | 64 | 79 |
| 2 | Ajax | 34 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 67 | 32 | 35 | 78 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 34 | 20 | 8 | 6 | 76 | 38 | 38 | 68 |
| 4 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 62 | 45 | 17 | 64 |
| 5 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 58 | 37 | 21 | 57 |
| 6 | FC Twente | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 62 | 49 | 13 | 54 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 57 | 55 | 2 | 51 |
| 8 | NECNijmegen | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 43 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 42 | 57 | -15 | 43 |
| 10 | PEC Zwolle | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 43 | 51 | -8 | 41 |
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 41 |
| 12 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 39 |
| 13 | Groningen | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 53 | -13 | 39 |
| 14 | Heracles | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 38 |
| 15 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 34 | 58 | -24 | 33 |
| 16 | Willem II | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 34 | 56 | -22 | 26 |
| R | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 44 | 74 | -30 | 25 |
| R | Almere CityAlmere City | 34 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 23 | 64 | -41 | 22 |
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