

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Utrecht win with a probability of 50.83%. A win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 26.41% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Utrecht win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.15%) and 0-2 (7.52%). The likeliest RKC Waalwijk win was 2-1 (6.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.38%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Utrecht would win this match.
| Result | ||
| RKC Waalwijk | Draw | FC Utrecht |
| 26.41% ( | 22.76% ( | 50.83% ( |
| Both teams to score 60.67% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.33% ( | 39.67% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.98% ( | 62.02% ( |
| RKC Waalwijk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.04% ( | 27.96% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.41% ( | 63.59% ( |
| FC Utrecht Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.22% ( | 15.78% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 55.08% ( | 44.91% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| RKC Waalwijk | Draw | FC Utrecht |
| 2-1 @ 6.62% ( 1-0 @ 5.62% ( 2-0 @ 3.58% ( 3-1 @ 2.81% ( 3-2 @ 2.59% ( 3-0 @ 1.52% ( Other @ 3.67% Total : 26.41% | 1-1 @ 10.38% ( 2-2 @ 6.11% ( 0-0 @ 4.41% ( 3-3 @ 1.6% ( Other @ 0.26% Total : 22.75% | 1-2 @ 9.59% ( 0-1 @ 8.15% ( 0-2 @ 7.52% ( 1-3 @ 5.9% ( 0-3 @ 4.63% ( 2-3 @ 3.76% ( 1-4 @ 2.72% ( 0-4 @ 2.14% ( 2-4 @ 1.74% ( 1-5 @ 1.01% ( Other @ 3.69% Total : 50.83% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 34 | 25 | 4 | 5 | 103 | 39 | 64 | 79 |
| 2 | Ajax | 34 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 67 | 32 | 35 | 78 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 34 | 20 | 8 | 6 | 76 | 38 | 38 | 68 |
| 4 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 62 | 45 | 17 | 64 |
| 5 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 58 | 37 | 21 | 57 |
| 6 | FC Twente | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 62 | 49 | 13 | 54 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 57 | 55 | 2 | 51 |
| 8 | NECNijmegen | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 43 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 42 | 57 | -15 | 43 |
| 10 | PEC Zwolle | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 43 | 51 | -8 | 41 |
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 41 |
| 12 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 39 |
| 13 | Groningen | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 53 | -13 | 39 |
| 14 | Heracles | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 38 |
| 15 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 34 | 58 | -24 | 33 |
| 16 | Willem II | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 34 | 56 | -22 | 26 |
| R | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 44 | 74 | -30 | 25 |
| R | Almere CityAlmere City | 34 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 23 | 64 | -41 | 22 |
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