

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Utrecht win with a probability of 68.39%. A draw had a probability of 17.9% and a win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 13.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Utrecht win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.69%) and 1-0 (8.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.28%), while for a RKC Waalwijk win it was 1-2 (3.93%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Utrecht would win this match.
| Result | ||
| FC Utrecht | Draw | RKC Waalwijk |
| 68.39% ( | 17.91% ( | 13.7% ( |
| Both teams to score 55.46% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.91% ( | 36.09% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.8% ( | 58.2% ( |
| FC Utrecht Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.38% ( | 9.62% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 67.86% ( | 32.14% ( |
| RKC Waalwijk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.36% ( | 38.64% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.62% ( | 75.38% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Utrecht | Draw | RKC Waalwijk |
| 2-0 @ 10.18% ( 2-1 @ 9.69% ( 1-0 @ 8.7% ( 3-0 @ 7.95% ( 3-1 @ 7.56% ( 4-0 @ 4.66% ( 4-1 @ 4.43% ( 3-2 @ 3.6% ( 5-0 @ 2.18% ( 4-2 @ 2.11% ( 5-1 @ 2.07% ( 5-2 @ 0.99% ( Other @ 4.28% Total : 68.38% | 1-1 @ 8.28% ( 2-2 @ 4.61% ( 0-0 @ 3.72% ( 3-3 @ 1.14% ( Other @ 0.17% Total : 17.91% | 1-2 @ 3.93% ( 0-1 @ 3.53% ( 0-2 @ 1.68% ( 2-3 @ 1.46% ( 1-3 @ 1.25% ( Other @ 1.85% Total : 13.7% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ajax | 30 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 62 | 26 | 36 | 73 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 30 | 21 | 4 | 5 | 89 | 34 | 55 | 67 |
| 3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 31 | 18 | 8 | 5 | 61 | 42 | 19 | 62 |
| 4 | Feyenoord | 29 | 17 | 8 | 4 | 64 | 32 | 32 | 59 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 56 | 44 | 12 | 48 |
| 6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 48 | 34 | 14 | 47 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 52 | 46 | 6 | 46 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 38 | 53 | -15 | 37 |
| 9 | Groningen | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 35 |
| 10 | Heracles | 30 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 37 | 52 | -15 | 35 |
| 11 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 29 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 34 |
| 12 | NECNijmegen | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 42 | 43 | -1 | 33 |
| 13 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 33 |
| 14 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 32 | 50 | -18 | 32 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 31 |
| 16 | Willem II | 29 | 6 | 6 | 17 | 30 | 49 | -19 | 24 |
| 17 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 30 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 35 | 62 | -27 | 19 |
| 18 | Almere CityAlmere City | 30 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 21 | 59 | -38 | 19 |
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