We said: Juventus 2-1 Benfica
Benfica are averaging two goals per game in this season's Champions League, but Juventus can usually keep things tight - it is just a matter of whether they find any rhythm in the final third.
If the hosts are able to break through a suspect visiting defence, then they should go on to win, leaving the endangered Eagles awaiting news from elsewhere.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 40.6%. A win for Juventus had a probability of 34.22% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.74%) and 0-2 (6.56%). The likeliest Juventus win was 1-0 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.86%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.