Champions League

Champions League | League Stage

Oct 2, 2024 at 8pm UK

Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Benfica
4 - 0
Atletico

Akturkoglu (13'), di Maria (52' pen.), Bah (75'), Kokcu (84' pen.)
Aursnes (23')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Serrano (70'), Gimenez (83'), Mandava (83'), Correa (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Benfica and Atletico Madrid, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Benfica

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Benfica 5-1 Gil Vicente
Saturday, September 28 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Atletico Madrid

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Atletico 1-1 Real Madrid
Sunday, September 29 at 8pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 49.47%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 26.52% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.57%) and 2-0 (8.13%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (6.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.

Result
Benfica	Draw	Atletico Madrid
49.47% ( -0.34)	24% ( -0.34)	26.52% ( 0.67)

Both teams to score 56.46% (

1.72)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.73% (

1.99)

45.27% (

-2)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.39% (

1.88)

67.61% (

-1.88)

Benfica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.62% (

0.64)

18.38% (

-0.64)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.49% (

1.07)

49.51% (

-1.07)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.18% (

1.58)

30.82% (

-1.59)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.9% (

1.83)

67.1% (

-1.83)

Score Analysis

Benfica 49.48%

Atletico Madrid 26.52%

Draw 24%

Benfica	Draw	Atletico Madrid
1-0 @ 9.6% ( -0.64) 2-1 @ 9.57% 2-0 @ 8.13% ( -0.36) 3-1 @ 5.4% ( 0.11) 3-0 @ 4.59% ( -0.11) 3-2 @ 3.18% ( 0.2) 4-1 @ 2.29% ( 0.09) 4-0 @ 1.94% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.35% ( 0.11) Other @ 3.44% Total : 49.48%	1-1 @ 11.29% ( -0.23) 0-0 @ 5.66% ( -0.5) 2-2 @ 5.63% ( 0.24) 3-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.13) Other @ 0.17% Total : 24%	0-1 @ 6.67% ( -0.28) 1-2 @ 6.65% ( 0.15) 0-2 @ 3.92% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.61% ( 0.17) 2-3 @ 2.21% ( 0.18) 0-3 @ 1.54% ( 0.07) Other @ 2.94% Total : 26.52%