Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 50.26%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 23.84%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.69%) and 1-2 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.23%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 1-0 (8.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Atletico Madrid | 
| 23.84% (  -0.18) | 25.89% (  -0.04) | 50.26% (  0.22) | 
| Both teams to score 48.06% (  -0.06) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 44.91% (  0.01) | 55.08% (  -0.02) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 23.66% (  0.01) | 76.34% (  -0.02) | 
| Rayo Vallecano Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 61.58% (  -0.16) | 38.42% (  0.15) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.83% (  -0.15) | 75.17% (  0.15) | 
| Atletico Madrid Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 78.04% (  0.1) | 21.96% (  -0.11) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.75% (  0.16) | 55.25% (  -0.16) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Atletico Madrid | 
| 1-0 @ 8.07% (  -0.04) 2-1 @ 5.85% (  -0.04) 2-0 @ 3.86% (  -0.03) 3-1 @ 1.87% (  -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.42% (  -0.01) 3-0 @ 1.23% (  -0.02) Other @ 1.55% Total : 23.84% | 1-1 @ 12.23% (  -0.02) 0-0 @ 8.44% (  -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.44% (  -0.01) Other @ 0.78% Total : 25.89% | 0-1 @ 12.78% (  0.03) 0-2 @ 9.69% (  0.05) 1-2 @ 9.27% (  0.01) 0-3 @ 4.9% (  0.04) 1-3 @ 4.69% (  0.02) 2-3 @ 2.24% (  0) 0-4 @ 1.86% (  0.02) 1-4 @ 1.78% (  0.01) Other @ 3.05% Total : 50.26% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 38 | 28 | 4 | 6 | 102 | 39 | 63 | 88 | 
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 78 | 38 | 40 | 84 | 
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 38 | 22 | 10 | 6 | 68 | 30 | 38 | 76 | 
| 4 | Athletic Bilbao | 38 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 54 | 29 | 25 | 70 | 
| 5 | Villarreal | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 71 | 51 | 20 | 70 | 
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 38 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 57 | 50 | 7 | 60 | 
| 7 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 16 | 7 | 15 | 59 | 57 | 2 | 55 | 
| 8 | Osasuna | 38 | 12 | 16 | 10 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 52 | 
| 9 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 52 | 
| 10 | Mallorca | 38 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 48 | 
| 11 | Valencia | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 46 | 
| 12 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 13 | 7 | 18 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 46 | 
| 13 | Getafe | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 42 | 
| 14 | AlavesAlaves | 38 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 42 | 
| 15 | Espanyol | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 42 | 
| 16 | Sevilla | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 41 | 
| 17 | GironaGirona | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 44 | 60 | -16 | 41 | 
| 18 | Leganes | 38 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 39 | 56 | -17 | 40 | 
| R | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 38 | 8 | 8 | 22 | 40 | 61 | -21 | 32 | 
| R | Real ValladolidValladolid | 38 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 26 | 90 | -64 | 16 | 
| > La Liga Full Table | |||||||||
