

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 77.37%. A draw had a probability of 14.7% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 7.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.85%) and 1-0 (10.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.99%), while for a Gil Vicente win it was 0-1 (2.77%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Gil Vicente | 
| 77.37% (  0.33) | 14.69% (  -0.1) | 7.94% (  -0.24) | 
| Both teams to score 45.43% (  -0.78) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 62.04% (  -0.39) | 37.95% (  0.38) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 39.78% (  -0.42) | 60.21% (  0.41) | 
| Benfica Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 91.95% (  -0.02) | 8.04% (  0.01) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 71.68% (  -0.05) | 28.31% (  0.04) | 
| Gil Vicente Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 49.4% (  -0.84) | 50.6% (  0.83) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 14.93% (  -0.58) | 85.07% (  0.57) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Benfica | Draw | Gil Vicente | 
| 2-0 @ 12.92% (  0.22) 3-0 @ 10.85% (  0.17) 1-0 @ 10.25% (  0.18) 2-1 @ 8.81% (  -0.06) 3-1 @ 7.4% (  -0.06) 4-0 @ 6.84% (  0.11) 4-1 @ 4.66% (  -0.04) 5-0 @ 3.45% (  0.05) 3-2 @ 2.52% (  -0.08) 5-1 @ 2.35% (  -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.59% (  -0.05) 6-0 @ 1.45% (  0.02) 6-1 @ 0.99% (  -0.01) Other @ 3.28% Total : 77.35% | 1-1 @ 6.99% (  -0.04) 0-0 @ 4.07% (  0.07) 2-2 @ 3% (  -0.1) Other @ 0.64% Total : 14.69% | 0-1 @ 2.77% (  -0.02) 1-2 @ 2.38% (  -0.07) 0-2 @ 0.94% (  -0.03) Other @ 1.84% Total : 7.94% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 26 | 19 | 5 | 2 | 70 | 23 | 47 | 62 | 
| 2 | Benfica | 25 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 59 | 20 | 39 | 59 | 
| 3 | Porto | 26 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 51 | 20 | 31 | 53 | 
| 4 | Braga | 26 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 42 | 22 | 20 | 53 | 
| 5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 27 | 25 | 2 | 43 | 
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 26 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 36 | 27 | 9 | 41 | 
| 7 | Casa Pia | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 32 | 35 | -3 | 36 | 
| 8 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 36 | 
| 9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 34 | 
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 31 | 37 | -6 | 31 | 
| 11 | Nacional | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 29 | 
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 29 | 43 | -14 | 29 | 
| 13 | AroucaArouca | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 25 | 39 | -14 | 29 | 
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 24 | 37 | -13 | 23 | 
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 21 | 38 | -17 | 23 | 
| 16 | AVS | 26 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 20 | 37 | -17 | 23 | 
| 17 | SC FarenseFarense | 26 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 17 | 37 | -20 | 17 | 
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 26 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 16 | 43 | -27 | 15 | 
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