

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 77.37%. A draw had a probability of 14.7% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 7.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.85%) and 1-0 (10.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.99%), while for a Gil Vicente win it was 0-1 (2.77%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 77.37% ( | 14.69% ( | 7.94% ( |
| Both teams to score 45.43% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.04% ( | 37.95% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.78% ( | 60.21% ( |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.95% ( | 8.04% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 71.68% ( | 28.31% ( |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 49.4% ( | 50.6% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 14.93% ( | 85.07% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 2-0 @ 12.92% ( 3-0 @ 10.85% ( 1-0 @ 10.25% ( 2-1 @ 8.81% ( 3-1 @ 7.4% ( 4-0 @ 6.84% ( 4-1 @ 4.66% ( 5-0 @ 3.45% ( 3-2 @ 2.52% ( 5-1 @ 2.35% ( 4-2 @ 1.59% ( 6-0 @ 1.45% ( 6-1 @ 0.99% ( Other @ 3.28% Total : 77.35% | 1-1 @ 6.99% ( 0-0 @ 4.07% ( 2-2 @ 3% ( Other @ 0.64% Total : 14.69% | 0-1 @ 2.77% ( 1-2 @ 2.38% ( 0-2 @ 0.94% ( Other @ 1.84% Total : 7.94% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 26 | 19 | 5 | 2 | 70 | 23 | 47 | 62 |
| 2 | Benfica | 25 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 59 | 20 | 39 | 59 |
| 3 | Porto | 26 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 51 | 20 | 31 | 53 |
| 4 | Braga | 26 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 42 | 22 | 20 | 53 |
| 5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 27 | 25 | 2 | 43 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 26 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 36 | 27 | 9 | 41 |
| 7 | Casa Pia | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 32 | 35 | -3 | 36 |
| 8 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 36 |
| 9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 34 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 31 | 37 | -6 | 31 |
| 11 | Nacional | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 29 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 29 | 43 | -14 | 29 |
| 13 | AroucaArouca | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 25 | 39 | -14 | 29 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 24 | 37 | -13 | 23 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 21 | 38 | -17 | 23 |
| 16 | AVS | 26 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 20 | 37 | -17 | 23 |
| 17 | SC FarenseFarense | 26 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 17 | 37 | -20 | 17 |
| 18 | BoavistaBoavista | 26 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 16 | 43 | -27 | 15 |
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