Two first-time Miami Open semi-finalists clash on Thursday as No. 1 seed Aryna Sabalenka takes on Jasmine Paolini in a top-10 showdown on Stadium Court.
The top seed has not dropped a set on her way to her first last-four match in Florida, but facing the relentless Italian presents a challenge to her goal of securing the fourth WTA 1000 tournament in 2025.
Match preview
© Iconsport
While Sabalenka was favoured to achieve a sixth consecutive victory over Qinwen Zheng in the quarters, the Belarusian's failure to hold serve early in the second set threatened a deciding set against the Chinese No. 1.
However, the top seed regained essential form on her deliveries to ultimately outlast Zheng 6-2, 7-5, improving to 21-4 for the season as she approaches Thursday's semi-final.
The consequence of eliminating the Olympic champion means that the 26-year-old has made it to the last four at the Australian Open, Indian Wells and Miami in the same year as the world No. 1, following in the footsteps of Steffi Graf (1994), Martina Hingis (1998, 2000, 2001) and Serena Williams (2015).
Despite her undeniable talent, results in the Sunshine Double appeared uncertain after a disappointing Middle East swing, where she suffered second-round and third-round exits in Qatar and Dubai.
Returning to form, Sabalenka now aims to reach the title match in Florida, eager to capitalise on a slew of top seeds exiting the tournament as it approaches the final rounds.
© Imago
However, Paolini's eyes would have brightened following recent events this week, with Mirra Andreeva and Madison Keys exiting in the third round, Coco Gauff in the fourth and Iga Swiatek losing in Wednesday's quarter-final against wild card Alexandra Eala.
The Italian player, who had never progressed past the third round at this Florida event, is just one victory away from competing in the title match at a 1000-level tournament for the second time.
Her victory over Magda Linette not only made the 29-year-old the first Italian woman to reach this stage since the tournament's inception in 1984 but also places her alongside Nadia Petrova, Danielle Collins, Ekaterina Alexandrova and Sorana Cirstea as the fifth-oldest player to earn a second semi-final berth at a WTA 1000 event since 2009.
The Italian No. 1's performance this season has been modest, having lost the element of surprise following last year's impressive performances, which included two Grand Slam finals and a WTA 1000 victory in Dubai; still, she seeks to make the most of her deepest run at any event this season.
This season's average performance is underscored by Paolini's 12 wins compared to Sabalenka's 21, yet the 29-year-old has triumphed over the top seed before and will strive for a third victory on Thursday.
Tournament so far
Aryna Sabalenka:
First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Viktoriya Tomova 6-3 6-0
Third round: vs. Elena-Gabriela Ruse 6-1 0-0 ret
Round of 16: vs. Danielle Collins 6-4 6-4
Quarter-final: vs. Qinwen Zheng 6-2 7-5
Jasmine Paolini:
First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Rebecca Sramkova 6-4 6-4
Round of 16: vs. Ons Jabeur 4-3 ret.
Third round: vs. Naomi Osaka 3-6 6-4 6-4
Quarter-final: vs. Magda Linette 6-3 6-2
Head To Head
WTA Finals (2024) - Round Robin: Sabalenka 6-3 7-5
Beijing (2023) - Round of 16: Sabalenka 6-4 7-6(4)
Indian Wells (2022) - Round of 64: Paolini 2-6 6-3 6-3
Linz (2020) - Round of 32: Sabalenka 6-4 6-4
Ilkley (2017) - Round of 32: Paolini 4-6 7-5 7-6(2)
While Sabalenka has dominated past opponents — holding a 7-0 record against Collins and 6-0 against Zheng — she has not always found success against Paolini, whom she leads 3-2.
Both women have faced each other four times on hard courts, with the No. 1 leading 3-1 on that surface, while the Italian's other victory came on the grass courts of Ilkley in their first encounter in 2017.
Significantly, the sixth seed has won both times she has pushed for a deciding set, whereas Sabalenka's three wins have all been in straight sets.
We say: Sabalenka to win in two sets
Interestingly, Thursday's match will mark Paolini's first top-10 encounter of 2025, while Sabalenka has participated in two such matches this year, winning both against Keys (who was not ranked among the elite during January's Aussie Open) and Zheng.
The Italian's record against top players — 3-6 in the last 52 weeks and 1-5 leading into the Miami semi-final — does not bode well for the 29-year-old, who could fall to a fourth consecutive defeat against this elite group in Florida.
