Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 38.85%. A win for Brest had a probability of 34.62% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.39%) and 2-0 (6.77%). The likeliest Brest win was 0-1 (9.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Toulouse | Draw | Brest |
| 38.85% ( | 26.53% ( | 34.62% ( |
| Both teams to score 52.28% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.41% ( | 52.58% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.76% ( | 74.24% ( |
| Toulouse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.55% ( | 26.44% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.38% ( | 61.61% ( |
| Brest Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.07% ( | 28.93% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.19% ( | 64.8% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Toulouse | Draw | Brest |
| 1-0 @ 10.17% ( 2-1 @ 8.39% ( 2-0 @ 6.77% ( 3-1 @ 3.72% ( 3-0 @ 3% ( 3-2 @ 2.31% ( 4-1 @ 1.24% 4-0 @ 1% ( Other @ 2.24% Total : 38.84% | 1-1 @ 12.62% ( 0-0 @ 7.65% ( 2-2 @ 5.21% ( 3-3 @ 0.96% ( Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.53% | 0-1 @ 9.49% ( 1-2 @ 7.83% ( 0-2 @ 5.88% ( 1-3 @ 3.24% ( 0-3 @ 2.43% ( 2-3 @ 2.15% ( 1-4 @ 1% ( Other @ 2.59% Total : 34.62% |

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 34 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 92 | 35 | 57 | 84 |
| 2 | Marseille | 34 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 74 | 47 | 27 | 65 |
| 3 | MonacoMonaco | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 63 | 41 | 22 | 61 |
| 4 | Nice | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 66 | 41 | 25 | 60 |
| 5 | Lille | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 52 | 36 | 16 | 60 |
| 6 | Lyon | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 65 | 46 | 19 | 57 |
| 7 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 56 | 44 | 12 | 57 |
| 8 | Lens | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 42 | 39 | 3 | 52 |
| 9 | Brest | 34 | 15 | 5 | 14 | 52 | 59 | -7 | 50 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 44 | 43 | 1 | 42 |
| 11 | Auxerre | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 48 | 51 | -3 | 42 |
| 12 | Rennes | 34 | 13 | 2 | 19 | 51 | 50 | 1 | 41 |
| 13 | NantesNantes | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 39 | 52 | -13 | 36 |
| 14 | Angers | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 36 |
| 15 | Le HavreLe Havre | 34 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 40 | 71 | -31 | 34 |
| 16 | Reims | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 33 | 47 | -14 | 33 |
| R | Saint-EtienneSt Etienne | 34 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 39 | 77 | -38 | 30 |
| R | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 34 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 23 | 79 | -56 | 16 |
| > Ligue 1 Full Table | |||||||||
