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Ligue 1
Toulouse
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 24
Feb 19, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Stadium Municipal
Marseille
Toulouse
2 - 3
Marseille
Dallinga (3'), Onaiwu (87')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Mbemba (52'), Under (59'), Tavares (78')
Under (54'), Kolasinac (76')
The Match
Preview
Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Toulouse and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
More game data and we say below the videos

Form, Standings, Stats

Toulouse

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Toulouse 3-1 Rennes
Sunday, February 12 at 12pm in Ligue 1

Marseille

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Clermont 0-2 Marseille
Saturday, February 11 at 8.45pm in Ligue 1

We said: Toulouse 0-2 Marseille

 We should see a different-looking Toulouse side who seem to have settled down nicely since some shaky performances at the end of 2022. However, the depth of Marseille and their ability to remain calm and organised when pressed at the back can frustrate opposing teams, while they have plenty of dependable players in attack who can get the job done. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 57.5%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Toulouse had a probability of 20.16%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.92%) and 0-2 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.55%), while for a Toulouse win it was 1-0 (5.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
ToulouseDrawMarseille
20.16% (0.165 0.17) 22.33% (0.11 0.11) 57.5% (-0.272 -0.27)
Both teams to score 54.12% (-0.083999999999996 -0.08)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.34% (-0.247 -0.25)44.65% (0.25 0.25)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.98% (-0.239 -0.24)67.02% (0.242 0.24)
Toulouse Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.88% (0.033999999999999 0.03)36.12% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.09% (0.029 0.03)72.9% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.73% (-0.173 -0.17)15.27% (0.175 0.17)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
56.03% (-0.327 -0.33)43.97% (0.33 0.33)
Score Analysis
    Toulouse 20.16%
    Marseille 57.5%
    Draw 22.33%
ToulouseDrawMarseille
1-0 @ 5.62% (0.065 0.07)
2-1 @ 5.37% (0.032999999999999 0.03)
2-0 @ 2.86% (0.035 0.03)
3-1 @ 1.82% (0.012 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.71% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-0 @ 0.97% (0.013 0.01)
Other @ 1.8%
Total : 20.16%
1-1 @ 10.55% (0.06 0.06)
0-0 @ 5.52% (0.059 0.06)
2-2 @ 5.05% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-3 @ 1.07% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 22.33%
0-1 @ 10.36% (0.049999999999999 0.05)
1-2 @ 9.92% (-0.0070000000000014 -0.01)
0-2 @ 9.74% (-0.013999999999999 -0.01)
1-3 @ 6.21% (-0.042 -0.04)
0-3 @ 6.1% (-0.047 -0.05)
2-3 @ 3.16% (-0.019 -0.02)
1-4 @ 2.92% (-0.038 -0.04)
0-4 @ 2.87% (-0.04 -0.04)
2-4 @ 1.49% (-0.018 -0.02)
1-5 @ 1.1% (-0.021 -0.02)
0-5 @ 1.08% (-0.022 -0.02)
Other @ 2.56%
Total : 57.5%

How you voted: Toulouse vs Marseille

Toulouse
7.5%
Draw
9.7%
Marseille
82.8%
93
Head to Head
Dec 29, 2022 8pm
Marseille
6-1
Toulouse
Rongier (13'), Nicolaisen (41' og.), Kolasinac (51'), Payet (61'), Under (80' pen.), Tavares (82')
Clauss (65')
Van den Boomen (66' pen.)
Feb 8, 2020 4.30pm
Marseille
1-0
Toulouse
Payet (51')
Gonzalez (15')

Makengo (61'), Sylla (71')
Nov 24, 2019 8pm
Toulouse
0-2
Marseille

Sangare (32'), Isimat-Mirin (63'), Amian (86')
Moreira (41')
Benedetto (76'), Radonjic (79')
Strootman (70'), Radonjic (80'), Kamara (82')
May 18, 2019 8pm
Toulouse
2-5
Marseille
Leya Iseka (26'), Gradel (61')
Jullien (22')
Sanson (29'), Sakai (50'), N'Jie (76'), Thauvin (90')
Amavi (39'), Rami (59')
Aug 10, 2018 7.45pm
Marseille
4-0
Toulouse
Payet (45' pen., 62'), Germain (89'), Thauvin (90')
Amavi (46')

Jullien (11'), Amian (44'), Sangare (55')
rhs 2.0
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> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG37274687375085
2Lens37249465283781
3Marseille37227867392873
4Lille37199964432166
5Rennes372051267382965
6MonacoMonaco371981069561365
7Lyon371881164442062
8Clermont37168134247-556
9Nice371413104536955
10Lorient371410135052-252
11Reims371215104442251
12Montpellier HSCMontpellier37145186261147
13Toulouse37129164956-745
14Brest371111154352-944
15StrasbourgStrasbourg37913155057-740
16Auxerre37811183460-2635
17NantesNantes37615163655-1933
RTroyes37411224480-3623
RAjaccio3765262274-5223
RAngers3746273380-4718
> Ligue 1 Full Table
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