Ligue 1 | Gameweek 22
Feb 15, 2025 at 4pm UK
Stade Velodrome
Marseille5 - 1St Etienne
We said: Marseille 4-1 Saint-Etienne
Marseille will be big favourites, and with the chance to win back-to-back home games for the first time this season, and five in a row against Saint-Etienne for the first time ever, the home side have plenty of encouragement to be on their game here. Few will give ASSE a chance here considering how potent Marseille's attack is and how poor Les Verts are at the back, and the visitors may be more focused on the home clash with Angers next weekend. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 73.65%. A draw had a probability of 15.9% and a win for Saint-Etienne had a probability of 10.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.3%) and 3-0 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.44%), while for a Saint-Etienne win it was 1-2 (3.11%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Marseille | Draw | Saint-Etienne |
73.65% ( -0.32) | 15.91% ( 0.18) | 10.44% ( 0.14) |
| Both teams to score 52.01% ( -0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
