Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 16

Jan 5, 2025 at 7.45pm UK

Stade Velodrome

Marseille
5 - 1
Le Havre

Rongier (25'), Nadir (39'), Maupay (43'), Wahi (66'), Garcia (75')
Nadir (45+5')

FT(HT: 4-0)

Ayew (85')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Marseille and Le Havre, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: St Etienne 0-4 Marseille
Sunday, December 22 at 1.45pm in Coupe de France

Goals
for

Le Havre

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Stade Briochin 1-0 Le Havre
Saturday, December 21 at 2.30pm in Coupe de France

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 62.14%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Le Havre had a probability of 16.58%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.03%) and 2-1 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.11%), while for a Le Havre win it was 0-1 (5.17%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
Marseille	Draw	Le Havre
62.14% ( 0.12)	21.29% ( -0.04)	16.58% ( -0.08)

Both teams to score 50.85% (

-0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.31% (

0.02)

45.68% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.99% (

0.02)

68.01% (

-0.02)

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.86% (

0.05)

14.14% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

58.21% (

0.09)

41.79% (

-0.09)

Le Havre Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.22% (

-0.09)

40.78% (

0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.64% (

-0.08)

77.36% (

0.08)

Score Analysis

Marseille 62.12%

Le Havre 16.58%

Draw 21.28%

Marseille	Draw	Le Havre
1-0 @ 11.27% 2-0 @ 11.03% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 9.9% ( -0) 3-0 @ 7.2% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 6.45% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 3.52% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 3.16% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.89% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.42% 5-0 @ 1.38% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.24% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.68% Total : 62.12%	1-1 @ 10.11% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 5.77% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.44% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.97% Total : 21.28%	0-1 @ 5.17% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 4.54% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 2.32% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.36% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.33% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.87% Total : 16.58%