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Ligue 1

Marseille
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 15
Dec 14, 2024 at 4pm UK
Stade Velodrome
Lille

Marseille
1 - 1
Lille

Merlin (17')
Hojbjerg (86'), De Zerbi (90+5')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Diakite (87')
Diakite (63'), Andre (90+2'), Gomes (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Ligue 1 clash between Marseille and Lille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions
Last Game: St Etienne 0-2 Marseille
Sunday, December 8 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1

Lille

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Lille 3-2 Sturm Graz
Wednesday, December 11 at 5.45pm in Champions League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 37.31%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 37% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.31%) and 0-2 (6.12%). The likeliest Marseille win was 1-0 (8.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.

Result
MarseilleDrawLille
37% (0.028000000000006 0.03)25.69% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)37.31% (-0.012 -0.01)
Both teams to score 55.32% (0.068000000000005 0.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.21% (0.087000000000003 0.09)48.79% (-0.093000000000004 -0.09)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.11% (0.077000000000002 0.08)70.89% (-0.084999999999994 -0.08)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.29% (0.051999999999992 0.05)25.71% (-0.059000000000001 -0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.37% (0.076000000000001 0.08)60.63% (-0.081000000000003 -0.08)
Lille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.46% (0.031999999999996 0.03)25.53% (-0.037000000000003 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.6% (0.048000000000002 0.05)60.39% (-0.054000000000002 -0.05)
Score Analysis
    Marseille 37%
    Lille 37.31%
    Draw 25.69%
MarseilleDrawLille
1-0 @ 8.92% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
2-1 @ 8.27% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
2-0 @ 6.06% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-1 @ 3.74% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
3-0 @ 2.74% (0.004 0)
3-2 @ 2.56% (0.008 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.27% (0.0049999999999999 0)
4-0 @ 0.93% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.51%
Total : 37%
1-1 @ 12.17% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 6.56% (-0.024 -0.02)
2-2 @ 5.64% (0.0089999999999995 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.16% (0.0050000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 25.69%
0-1 @ 8.96% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)
1-2 @ 8.31% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-2 @ 6.12% (-0.010000000000001 -0.01)
1-3 @ 3.78% (0.004 0)
0-3 @ 2.78% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
2-3 @ 2.57% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
1-4 @ 1.29% (0.002 0)
0-4 @ 0.95% (0.001 0)
Other @ 2.55%
Total : 37.31%

How you voted: Marseille vs Lille

Marseille
59.4%
Draw
21.7%
Lille
18.8%
69
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