Ligue 1 | Gameweek 28
Apr 5, 2024 at 8pm UK
Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Lille3 - 1Marseille
We said: Lille 2-0 Marseille
No longer enjoying Gasset's new manager bounce and still working with a ravaged set of defensive options, another dismal weekend awaits the Marseille faithful, whose 10-hour journey to the Stade Pierre-Mauroy will likely go unrewarded. Visiting a ground where Lille are hardly ever outclassed and have not failed to score in over a year, the stage is set for Gasset's men to suffer a fourth straight defeat, as Les Dogues enhance their European credentials at the expense of their visitors' top-six hopes. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 53.77%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Marseille had a probability of 22.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.78%) and 2-0 (9.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.15%), while for a Marseille win it was 0-1 (6.37%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lille | Draw | Marseille |
53.77% ( 0.13) | 23.54% ( 0.04) | 22.69% ( -0.16) |
| Both teams to score 53.83% ( -0.33) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
