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Ligue 1

Lens logo
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 12
Nov 23, 2024 at 4pm UK
Stade Bollaert-Delelis
Marseille

Lens
1 - 3
Marseille

Fulgini (80')
Frankowski (37'), Machado (74'), Danso (83'), Sotoca (90+6'), Fulgini (90+6')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Rongier (49'), Henrique (57'), Hojbjerg (89')
Rongier (19'), Kondogbia (66'), Garcia (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Ligue 1 clash between Lens and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lens

All competitions
Last Game: Lens 3-2 Nantes
Saturday, November 9 at 6pm in Ligue 1

Marseille

All competitions
Last Game: Marseille 1-3 Auxerre
Friday, November 8 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 40.55%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 33.75% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.7%) and 2-0 (6.8%). The likeliest Marseille win was 0-1 (8.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
LensDrawMarseille
40.55% (-0.028000000000006 -0.03)25.7% (0.056000000000001 0.06)33.75% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)
Both teams to score 54.86% (-0.186 -0.19)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.8% (-0.23999999999999 -0.24)49.2% (0.243 0.24)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.73% (-0.216 -0.22)71.27% (0.22 0.22)
Lens Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76% (-0.12 -0.12)24% (0.123 0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.75% (-0.17299999999999 -0.17)58.25% (0.176 0.18)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.18% (-0.129 -0.13)27.82% (0.133 0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.58% (-0.168 -0.17)63.42% (0.171 0.17)
Score Analysis
    Lens 40.55%
    Marseille 33.75%
    Draw 25.7%
LensDrawMarseille
1-0 @ 9.53% (0.059999999999999 0.06)
2-1 @ 8.7% (-0.0080000000000009 -0.01)
2-0 @ 6.8% (0.019 0.02)
3-1 @ 4.14% (-0.019 -0.02)
3-0 @ 3.24% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-2 @ 2.65% (-0.022 -0.02)
4-1 @ 1.48% (-0.012 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.15% (-0.006 -0.01)
4-2 @ 0.95% (-0.011 -0.01)
Other @ 1.93%
Total : 40.55%
1-1 @ 12.19% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
0-0 @ 6.68% (0.066 0.07)
2-2 @ 5.57% (-0.026 -0.03)
3-3 @ 1.13% (-0.014 -0.01)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 25.7%
0-1 @ 8.54% (0.052999999999999 0.05)
1-2 @ 7.8% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
0-2 @ 5.46% (0.013 0.01)
1-3 @ 3.33% (-0.016 -0.02)
2-3 @ 2.37% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-3 @ 2.33% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
1-4 @ 1.06% (-0.01 -0.01)
Other @ 2.85%
Total : 33.75%

How you voted: Lens vs Marseille

Lens
27.0%
Draw
22.0%
Marseille
51.0%
100
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> Preview
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Gradit (44'), Abdul Samed (76')

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> Preview
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> Preview