Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 46.91%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 27.88% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.31%) and 2-0 (8.17%). The likeliest Marseille win was 0-1 (7.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Lens in this match.
| Result | ||
| Lens | Draw | Marseille | 
| 46.91% ( | 25.21% ( | 27.88% ( | 
| Both teams to score 53.61% ( | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 50.47% ( | 49.53% ( | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 28.44% ( | 71.56% ( | 
| Lens Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 78.87% ( | 21.13% ( | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.02% ( | 53.98% ( | 
| Marseille Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 67.98% ( | 32.02% ( | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.52% ( | 68.48% ( | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Lens | Draw | Marseille | 
| 1-0 @ 10.51% ( 2-1 @ 9.31% ( 2-0 @ 8.17% ( 3-1 @ 4.82% ( 3-0 @ 4.24% ( 3-2 @ 2.75% ( 4-1 @ 1.87% ( 4-0 @ 1.65% ( 4-2 @ 1.07% ( Other @ 2.52% Total : 46.91% | 1-1 @ 11.97% ( 0-0 @ 6.77% ( 2-2 @ 5.3% ( 3-3 @ 1.04% ( Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.2% | 0-1 @ 7.71% ( 1-2 @ 6.82% ( 0-2 @ 4.39% 1-3 @ 2.59% ( 2-3 @ 2.01% ( 0-3 @ 1.67% ( Other @ 2.7% Total : 27.88% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 32 | 20 | 10 | 2 | 77 | 32 | 45 | 70 | 
| 2 | MonacoMonaco | 33 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 64 | 42 | 22 | 64 | 
| 3 | Lille | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 50 | 32 | 18 | 58 | 
| 4 | Brest | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 50 | 34 | 16 | 58 | 
| 5 | Nice | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 37 | 25 | 12 | 54 | 
| 6 | Lens | 33 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 43 | 35 | 8 | 50 | 
| 7 | Lyon | 33 | 15 | 5 | 13 | 47 | 54 | -7 | 50 | 
| 8 | Marseille | 32 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 50 | 39 | 11 | 47 | 
| 9 | Rennes | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 52 | 44 | 8 | 46 | 
| 10 | Toulouse | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 42 | 43 | -1 | 43 | 
| 11 | Reims | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 39 | 46 | -7 | 41 | 
| 12 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 40 | 
| 13 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 37 | 48 | -11 | 39 | 
| 14 | NantesNantes | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 30 | 51 | -21 | 33 | 
| 15 | Le HavreLe Havre | 33 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 32 | 
| 16 | Metz | 33 | 8 | 5 | 20 | 35 | 56 | -21 | 29 | 
| 17 | Lorient | 33 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 38 | 66 | -28 | 26 | 
| R | Clermont | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 26 | 55 | -29 | 25 | 
| > Ligue 1 Full Table | |||||||||
