We said: Lille 1-0 Brest
Not even Europe's finest have been able to beat Lille over the past three months, and they should be able to keep that run going against a Brest side who have flattered to deceive domestically, despite heroics in Europe.
Both clubs may have one eye on their Champions League fixtures next week, but should still both name strong sides in what could be a close encounter.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 54.8%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Brest had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.85%) and 2-0 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.78%), while for a Brest win it was 0-1 (5.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
-3.75) 
1.34) 
