

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 40.36%. A win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 34.17% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.7%) and 0-2 (6.65%). The likeliest Montpellier HSC win was 1-0 (8.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Montpellier HSC | Draw | Marseille |
| 34.17% | 25.47% | 40.36% |
| Both teams to score 55.73% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.87% ( | 48.13% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.71% ( | 70.29% ( |
| Montpellier HSC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.96% ( | 27.04% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.59% | 62.41% |
| Marseille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.38% | 23.62% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 42.3% ( | 57.7% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Montpellier HSC | Draw | Marseille |
| 1-0 @ 8.35% 2-1 @ 7.88% 2-0 @ 5.46% 3-1 @ 3.44% 3-2 @ 2.48% 3-0 @ 2.38% 4-1 @ 1.12% Other @ 3.05% Total : 34.17% | 1-1 @ 12.05% 0-0 @ 6.39% 2-2 @ 5.69% 3-3 @ 1.19% Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.47% | 0-1 @ 9.22% ( 1-2 @ 8.7% 0-2 @ 6.65% 1-3 @ 4.18% 0-3 @ 3.2% 2-3 @ 2.74% 1-4 @ 1.51% ( 0-4 @ 1.15% 2-4 @ 0.99% Other @ 2.02% Total : 40.36% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 29 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 82 | 27 | 55 | 77 |
| 2 | Marseille | 30 | 17 | 4 | 9 | 62 | 42 | 20 | 55 |
| 3 | MonacoMonaco | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 57 | 35 | 22 | 54 |
| 4 | Lyon | 29 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 57 | 39 | 18 | 51 |
| 5 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 48 | 37 | 11 | 51 |
| 6 | Lille | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 44 | 31 | 13 | 50 |
| 7 | Nice | 29 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 54 | 37 | 17 | 48 |
| 8 | Brest | 29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 47 | 46 | 1 | 44 |
| 9 | Lens | 29 | 12 | 6 | 11 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 42 |
| 10 | Rennes | 30 | 12 | 2 | 16 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 38 |
| 11 | Auxerre | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 40 | 42 | -2 | 38 |
| 12 | Toulouse | 29 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 38 | 38 | 0 | 34 |
| 13 | NantesNantes | 29 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 34 | 49 | -15 | 30 |
| 14 | Angers | 29 | 8 | 6 | 15 | 28 | 46 | -18 | 30 |
| 15 | Reims | 29 | 7 | 8 | 14 | 31 | 42 | -11 | 29 |
| 16 | Le HavreLe Havre | 30 | 8 | 3 | 19 | 33 | 64 | -31 | 27 |
| 17 | Saint-EtienneSt Etienne | 29 | 6 | 6 | 17 | 31 | 67 | -36 | 24 |
| 18 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 30 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 22 | 71 | -49 | 15 |
| > Ligue 1 Full Table | |||||||||
