

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Queen of the South win with a probability of 46.6%. A win for Kelty Hearts had a probability of 27.78% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Queen of the South win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.23%) and 0-2 (8.33%). The likeliest Kelty Hearts win was 1-0 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Queen of the South would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Kelty Hearts | Draw | Queen of the South |
| 27.78% ( | 25.62% ( | 46.6% ( |
| Both teams to score 52.25% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.72% ( | 51.28% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.89% ( | 73.11% ( |
| Kelty Hearts Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.99% ( | 33.01% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.4% ( | 69.6% ( |
| Queen of the South Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78% ( | 22% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.69% ( | 55.31% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Kelty Hearts | Draw | Queen of the South |
| 1-0 @ 8.05% ( 2-1 @ 6.75% ( 2-0 @ 4.46% ( 3-1 @ 2.5% ( 3-2 @ 1.89% ( 3-0 @ 1.65% ( Other @ 2.48% Total : 27.78% | 1-1 @ 12.18% ( 0-0 @ 7.26% ( 2-2 @ 5.11% ( 3-3 @ 0.95% ( Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.62% | 0-1 @ 10.99% ( 1-2 @ 9.23% ( 0-2 @ 8.33% ( 1-3 @ 4.66% ( 0-3 @ 4.2% ( 2-3 @ 2.58% ( 1-4 @ 1.76% ( 0-4 @ 1.59% ( 2-4 @ 0.98% ( Other @ 2.28% Total : 46.59% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Arbroath | 36 | 19 | 7 | 10 | 58 | 42 | 16 | 64 |
| 2 | Cove Rangers | 36 | 16 | 9 | 11 | 62 | 44 | 18 | 57 |
| 3 | Queen of the SouthQotS | 36 | 16 | 7 | 13 | 46 | 41 | 5 | 55 |
| 4 | StenhousemuirStenhousemuir | 36 | 15 | 8 | 13 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 53 |
| 5 | Alloa AthleticAlloa | 36 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 55 | 47 | 8 | 51 |
| 6 | Kelty Hearts | 36 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 40 | 46 | -6 | 44 |
| 7 | Inverness Caledonian ThistleInverness | 36 | 16 | 10 | 10 | 45 | 38 | 7 | 43 |
| 8 | Montrose | 36 | 9 | 13 | 14 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 40 |
| 9 | Annan AthleticAnnan | 36 | 10 | 6 | 20 | 41 | 68 | -27 | 36 |
| 10 | Dumbarton | 36 | 8 | 11 | 17 | 51 | 66 | -15 | 20 |
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