

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boavista win with a probability of 46.43%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 27.14% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boavista win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.05%) and 2-0 (8.71%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 0-1 (8.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Boavista | Draw | Estrela Amadora |
| 46.43% ( | 26.43% ( | 27.14% ( |
| Both teams to score 49.37% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.2% ( | 54.8% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.89% ( | 76.1% ( |
| Boavista Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.43% ( | 23.57% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 42.36% ( | 57.64% ( |
| Estrela Amadora Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.6% ( | 35.39% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 27.84% ( | 72.16% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Boavista | Draw | Estrela Amadora |
| 1-0 @ 12.05% ( 2-1 @ 9.05% ( 2-0 @ 8.71% ( 3-1 @ 4.36% ( 3-0 @ 4.2% ( 3-2 @ 2.26% ( 4-1 @ 1.57% ( 4-0 @ 1.52% ( Other @ 2.71% Total : 46.42% | 1-1 @ 12.52% 0-0 @ 8.34% ( 2-2 @ 4.7% ( Other @ 0.86% Total : 26.42% | 0-1 @ 8.67% ( 1-2 @ 6.5% ( 0-2 @ 4.5% ( 1-3 @ 2.25% ( 2-3 @ 1.63% ( 0-3 @ 1.56% ( Other @ 2.04% Total : 27.14% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
| 2 | Benfica | 32 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 71 | 27 | 44 | 76 |
| 3 | Porto | 32 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 60 | 26 | 34 | 66 |
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 68 | 47 | 21 | 65 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 47 | 34 | 13 | 60 |
| 6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 49 |
| 7 | AroucaArouca | 32 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
| 9 | SC FarenseFarense | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 37 |
| 10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
| 11 | Casa Pia | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 35 |
| 12 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 33 |
| 13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
| 14 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 58 | -22 | 31 |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
| 16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
| R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
| R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
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